Iron ore prices show a strong upward trend supported by fundamentals [SMM Commentary]

Published: Aug 4, 2025 17:00

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Today, the iron ore futures opened lower before rebounding, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 790.5, up 0.76% for the day. Traders showed active selling willingness, while steel mills remained cautious with weak purchase willingness. Market transactions were moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 773-776 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt WoW. In Tangshan, PB fines traded at 780-790 yuan/mt, rising slightly by 5-7 yuan/mt WoW.

Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 33.5 million mt, up 870,000 mt WoW. However, affected by typhoon weather in China, SMM China's iron ore arrivals continued to decline by 1.9 million mt WoW, down 7.85%. The main reductions came from coarse fines and pellets. Although rumors about production restrictions persist, they remain at the expectation level. If the restrictions are implemented in late August, the supply-demand pattern may shift, putting downward pressure on ore prices. [SMM Steel]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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