[Russia-China Trade Shifts Deepen LME Aluminium Shortage]

LME aluminium stocks have plunged to 340,975 tonnes by June 2025, less than half the level in July 2021. This drop has pushed the three-month aluminium price up 6% month-on-month to $2,584.50 per tonne. Cancelled Warrants, down 97% since 2021, fell much faster than Live Warrants, which declined 64%, mainly due to rising Russian aluminium inventory on the LME—up 35% from January to May 2025.

The sharp fall in cancelled warrants signals limited drawdown interest, especially as Russian metal, boycotted by the West since April 2024, continues to pile up. Meanwhile, China has become the main buyer, with imports of Russian aluminium surging 48% year-on-year to 741,000 tonnes in Jan–Apr 2025. Russia now supplies nearly 40% of China’s aluminium imports.

Unlike the LME, China’s SHFE allows Russian aluminium, and with China’s output capped and domestic stocks low, demand for imports is rising. As a result, Russian metal is increasingly bypassing the LME, further straining global exchange-tracked supply and reinforcing a long-term structural shortfall with no easy fix.