[SMM Imports Analysis] China's Iron Ore Imports Rose Nearly 10% MoM in April, with Room for Further Growth in May

SMM, May 9, 2025: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a cumulative total of 103.14 million mt of iron ore fines and their concentrates in April, up 9.75% MoM and 1.3% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative imports of iron ore fines and their concentrates reached 388.48 million mt, a 5.5% decrease YoY

. The main driving factors include:
1) Improvement on the supply side: Weather disturbances in the Southern Hemisphere have weakened, and shipments from mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil have increased by 5-8% MoM, with port arrivals rebounding steadily;
2) Support on the demand side: The daily average pig iron production has reached its peak. Coupled with the concentrated restocking by steel mills before the Labour Day holiday, the overall demand for iron ore has increased, driving up import demand.

Looking ahead to May, there is still room for an increase in iron ore imports, driven by the demand support from pig iron production fluctuating at highs and overseas mines entering the peak shipping season. After the decline in Australia's shipments in Q1, mainstream mines are expected to increase their shipping efforts in Q2 to meet their semi-annual targets. However, caution should be exercised regarding the potential suppression of high-cost non-mainstream ore shipments due to the expected decline in ore prices amid production restrictions on crude steel. Considering the impact of one additional working day in May compared to April, SMM expects a significant increase in iron ore imports for the month.

Chart: China's Iron Ore Imports

Source: General Administration of Customs of China

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