According to the SMM survey, the production of silver nitrate in 2024 is expected to reach 9,381 mt. Some self-use enterprises and reagent companies were not tracked, and the annual production of silver nitrate is estimated to be 11,500-12,000 mt. The YoY increase in silver nitrate production for 2024 is projected to be 15%-20%. After surpassing 10,000 mt last year, the production of silver nitrate in 2024 will remain above this level with further growth. The increase in demand for silver nitrate this year is primarily driven by the PV sector.
Current silver nitrate supply situation: The market's existing capacity is 20,000 mt, and silver nitrate enterprises will continue to expand capacity in 2024 due to the following reasons:
1. The market size is indeed growing.
2. The industry chain operates on a produce-based-on-sales model, and top-tier enterprises still have expansion needs.
3. Enterprises rely on silver nitrate production for output value.
4. Upstream enterprises are expanding downstream, with relatively higher profits from processing fees.
5. The market is entering a phase of high-end demand for new-type industries.
However, with capacity expansion and more players entering the market, competition has intensified, leading to a continuous decline in industry profits.
So, what about future market demand?
The demand for the PV industry in 2025 is expected to remain at the same level as this year, with a strong correlation to silver prices. If silver prices continue to rise in 2025, downstream enterprises, facing high costs, may shift to lower consumption rates or substitute with other base metals to reduce costs. Conversely, if silver prices in 2025 drop significantly compared to 2024, the market will likely continue to choose silver nitrate powder for downstream capacity performance issues. Additionally, as silver is a precious metal with limited availability, its price is bound to rise in the future. Consequently, the market will stockpile raw material silver nitrate based on stockpiling demand, leading to an increase in demand compared to this year.
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