According to customs data, in July 2024, the exports of refined lead were 353 mt, down 74.08% MoM and 98.2% YoY. From January to July, the exports of refined lead and lead materials were 29,246 mt, down 71.68% YoY. In July 2024, the imports of refined lead were 14,248 mt, and the imports of lead alloy were 17,741 mt. From January to July, the imports of refined lead and lead materials were 61,754 mt, up 109.31% YoY.
In July, the domestic raw material supply conflict continued to ferment, especially with large-scale production cuts and shutdowns in secondary lead enterprises, pushing lead prices to continue rising. During this period, the most-traded SHFE lead contract reached a high of 20,050 yuan/mt, setting a new high since July 4, 2018. In the overseas market, due to high inventory levels, the increase in LME lead was not as significant as SHFE lead, and the SHFE/LME price ratio further expanded compared to June. After the lead ingot import window opened in the Chinese market, the import profit margin expanded again, reaching around 1,724 yuan/mt at its peak. Therefore, the combined imports of refined lead and lead materials increased significantly in July. Entering August, the domestic fundamentals weakened, and lead prices plummeted, narrowing the SHFE/LME lead price ratio, and the lead ingot import window gradually closed. The new pre-orders for imported lead in mid-to-late August will gradually decrease, and subsequent arrivals will mainly be pre-orders from July or early August. According to an SMM survey, it is estimated that the combined imports of refined lead and lead materials in August may exceed 40,000 mt.
