Spot Lead Prices Fluctuate Weakly, Inventory of Primary Lead Smelters Increases in Some Regions? [SMM Analysis]

Last week (August 12-16), the most-traded SHFE lead 2409 contract weakened mid-week. The spot market was highly cautious, with downstream buyers generally cautious in their purchases for fear of further declines, resulting in overall weak transactions.

Before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2408 contract last week, smelter inventories were concentratedly transferred to social warehouses, leading to a slight increase in social inventory (As the delivery date approaches, holders transfer stocks, leading to an increase in social inventories of lead ingots [SMM survey]). Meanwhile, some non-branded lead and secondary refined lead smelters in certain regions also faced inventory pressure. The expected peak season for downstream in early August was delayed, coupled with eased domestic lead ingot supply, leading some manufacturers to expand discounts for sales, with significant regional differences.

In Henan, since primary lead smelters had almost completed the pre-sale of August lead ingots by late July, early August smelter inventory was mainly for pre-sale and long-term order shipments. Except for a slight increase in inventory at a few smelters resuming from maintenance, the inventory increase at other large-scale smelters was relatively limited. Although there were occasional large discount quotes in the trade market, smelter quotes were only slightly discounted by 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM1# lead. In Guangdong and Yunnan, primary lead smelters did not face inventory pressure. Despite downstream buyers being cautious, there were no signs of expanded discount sales. A smelter mentioned that due to raw material prices and smelting costs, lead prices remained quoted at flat or premium levels for SMM1# lead during the price decline, and no significant inventory increase was observed in mid-August due to the high proportion of long-term order shipments. In Hunan, during the SMM survey last Wednesday, it was conservatively estimated that the inventory of primary lead smelters in the region had increased by at least 5,000 mt (local smelters estimated the inventory increase level might exceed 10,000 mt). This was mainly due to weak lead prices in the first half of the week, leading to extremely poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Several smelters saw a continuous decline in total spot transactions over several days, resulting in a temporary inventory build-up. Additionally, downstream buyers actively negotiated discounts, and smelter quotes gradually expanded to a discount of 200-150 yuan/mt against SMM 1# lead. In the latter half of the week, as lead prices stabilized, there was a slight increase in downstream just-in-time purchases, leading to a small outflow of smelter inventory. However, some manufacturers still experienced a half-week inventory build-up. In late August, a medium-sized manufacturer in the region planned to reduce production for maintenance, which might temporarily ease local supply pressure.