SMM Analysis Of China Overseas Aluminium Production In May And Forecast For June

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas aluminium output in May 2024 (31 days) was 2.5079 million mt, up 1% YoY. As of 2024, the cumulative output reached 12.287 million mt, up 1.2% YoY. The capacity utilization rate of overseas aluminium was 86.4%, flat MoM, up 1.1% YoY.

By region:

North America: The output in May was 335,000 mt, down 2.3% YoY. The decline in output was mainly due to the complete shutdown of the New Madrid smelter in March 2024.

South America: The output in May was approximately 130,000 mt, up 6.4% YoY. The Alumar smelter (60% owned by Alcoa, 40% by South32) announced the production resumption in April 2022, with the capacity utilization rate recovering to about 69% in May, and the output in May was approximately 26,000 mt. Additionally, the Brazilian market demand improved compared to the same period last year, with Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio's aluminium output up 7% YoY to about 30,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 80%.

Russia: The aluminium production for May was approximately 351,300 mt, up 3.1% YoY. The growth mainly came from the resumption of the Taishet smelter. SMM estimates the smelter's May production to be around 20,000 mt, with the capacity utilization rate resuming to about 55%.

Africa: The production was approximately 133,000 mt in May, down 2.1% YoY. This decline was due to short-term equipment upgrades at the Mozal smelter, which affected part of the capacity. South32 said that this short-term factor would not impact the annual production.

India: The production increased by 1.8% YoY to 350,000 mt in May. The Vedanta Jharsuguda smelter's monthly production increased by 5% YoY to 155,000 mt.

Other regions in Asia excluding China, India, and the Middle East: The production saw a significant increase in May, up 5.7% YoY to 176,000 mt. The main growth came from Indonesia. The Huaqing Aluminium smelter in Indonesia started operations in 2023, with a production capacity of 500,000 mt in 2024. SMM estimates the smelter's production in May to be around 22,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 53%.

June forecast: According to SMM statistics, the overseas aluminium production in June 2024 (30 days) is expected to be approximately 2.427 million mt, up about 0.9% YoY, with the capacity utilization rate remaining flat MoM and slightly increasing by 1% YoY.