Zinc alloy exports in March showed significant year-on-year changes [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest customs data, zinc alloy exports in March 2024 were 316.22 tons, a month-on-month increase of 140.61% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.63%; the cumulative zinc alloy exports from January to March 2024 were 811.7 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.47 percentage points.

In March 2024, Vietnam imported 133.2 tons of Chinese zinc alloy, accounting for 42.13% of the total zinc alloy exports in March, ranking first; Uzbekistan imported 111.5 tons of Chinese zinc alloy, accounting for 35.27% of the total zinc alloy exports in March; Bangladesh imported 52 tons of zinc alloy from China, accounting for 16.45%, ranking third; Paraguay and Indonesia followed closely. Compared with the cumulative amount in January and February, Saudi Arabia's import volume has changed significantly. Compared with March 2023, Bangladesh's import volume increased, jumping to third place, while Paraguay's import volume decreased to fourth place. The overall export volume was still driven by traditional importing countries.

SMM attributed the month-on-month and year-on-year changes to two factors.
1. Vietnam also resumed production after the Chinese New Year, which increased demand, thereby driving China’s export volume of zinc alloy; 2. With regard to the year-on-year decline, in addition to the severe international situation, considering the strong SHFE/LME price ratio, the advantage of domestic zinc alloy prices has been relatively reduced, and market competitiveness has weakened.

In April, the SHFE/LME price ratio is still fluctuating at a high level. Coupled with the expectation of weakening overseas consumption, it is expected that the export volume of zinc alloy will hardly increase significantly.