[SMM Analysis] Zinc concentrate imports from January to February were low due to CNY

SHANGHAI, Mar 21 (SMM) - According to the latest customs data, zinc concentrate imports in January 2024 were 395,900 tons (physical tons), and zinc concentrate imports in February were 251,200 tons (physical tons), a decrease of 36.56% from January (144,700 physical tons), a year-on-year decrease of 46.68%. The cumulative zinc concentrate import volume from January to February was 647,100 tons (physical tons), a year-on-year decrease of 28.29%.

By country, from January to February 2024, the top three supplier countries are: Peru with 108,200 physical tons in January and 63,200 physical tons in February, accounting for a cumulative 26.49%; Australia with 99,100 physical tons in January, 67,800 physical tons in February, accounting for 25.79% of the total; Kazakhstan with 24,900 physical tons in January and 28,500 physical tons in February, accounting for 8.25% of the total. Judging from the month-on-month data, in February, imports from Peru, Australia, South Africa and other countries saw significant reductions, while those from Kazakhstan, Eritrea saw an increase to varying degrees.

SMM attributes the low zinc concentrate imports to three reasons:

1. Some smelters stopped production during the CNY holidays, which has reduced the demand for zinc concentrate;

2. In the first quarter, Australia was in the rainy season. Floods affected mining transportation and the inflow into China decreased;

3. The production of some mines in South Africa has been blocked and the output has dropped significantly, affecting the amount of zinc concentrate flowing into China;

4. The SHFE/LME price ratio is weak, the import window continues to be closed from January to February, and there are few opportunities for imported ore to flow in.

In March, the ore import window opened intermittently, and zinc concentrate imports are expected to recover slightly in March.