From January to February, domestic primary aluminum imports increased significantly by 214.7% YoY, and net imports increased by 221.9% YoY [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, domestic primary aluminum imports from January to February totaled 472,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 214.7%. Domestic primary aluminum exports totaled 985 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 73%. Net import was about 471,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 221.9%. From the perspective of the source countries of primary aluminum imports, the total import volume from Russia in January was approximately 161,800 tons, accounting for 65.3% of the total, a year-on-year increase of 299.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 34.4%; imports from India was approximately 38,200 tons, accounting for 15.4%, a year-on-year increase of 336.2%, and a month-on-month increase of 172.2%; the total import from Indonesia was approximately 22,100 tons, accounting for 8.9%, a month-on-month increase of 103.7%. In February, the total imports of primary aluminum from Russia was approximately 115,400 tons, accounting for 51.5%, a year-on-year increase of 78.0%, and a month-on-month decrease of 28.7%; the total import volume from India was approximately 26,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6512.2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 30.5%; the total volume imported from China was 23,300 tons, accounting for 10.4%; the total volume imported from Indonesia was approximately 22,100 tons, accounting for 9.9%.

Import analysis: The main import sources of domestic primary aluminum from January to February 2024 are Russia, India, Indonesia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and other countries. Among them, the total volume of imported primary aluminum from Russia was approximately 277,000 tons, accounting for 58.7% of the total, an increase of 163.2% year-on-year. In January, the total monthly domestic primary aluminum imports from Russia reached 162,000 tons, reaching a new high in the past two years; the total volume of imported primary aluminum from India is approximately 64,000 tons, accounting for 13.7% of total, a year-on-year increase of 607.0%; the total volume of imported primary aluminum from Indonesia is approximately 44,000 tons , accounting for 9.4% of total . The total amount of imported primary aluminum from China is 23,300 tons, accounting for 4.95%. This part of imported primary aluminum mainly enters the domestic market through discharging processing trade. Judging from the data on alumina exported in the form of processing trade, China's import of primary aluminum through processing trade may still increase.

Overall, China's primary aluminum import window opened for a long time from January to February , especially in January, the import window opened for a long time, and import profits were considerable. Primary aluminum from many countries came to China. Therefore, although the total amount of primary aluminum imported by Russia remained at a high level, its proportion has decreased. In the future, imported primary aluminum from Russia will still be the main force in China's replenishment of imported primary aluminum.

Domestic primary aluminum imports mainly flowed in through general trade, with import volume accounting for 66.64% of total; inbound and outbound goods through bonded supervision sites and logistics goods in special customs supervision areas accounted for 25.04%. Considering that the import window closed at the end of January and gradually opened in late February, some bonded area goods may enter the domestic aluminum market in early March; 4.95% will be processed through discharge processing, 2.31% through feeding processing, and 1.06% through tolling trade.

Export analysis: From January to February 2024, domestic primary aluminum mainly flowed out through logistics goods in special customs supervision areas, accounting for 96.75%. From the perspective of export destination countries, 45.65% of exported primary aluminum arrived in Angola , and 30.46% was exported to Nigeria.

SMM Brief Comment: From January to February 2024, China's aluminum import window opened for a long time, especially, the import window in January opened for about 20 days. Net imports increased by 221.91% year-on-year, with the total amount reaching 471,000 tons. The large amount of imported primary aluminum has had a certain impact on the domestic primary aluminum market and somehow affected the domestic aluminum ingot inventory. China's aluminum social inventory accumulation has slowed down, but has not begun to drop, which may be affected by imported primary aluminum. Subsequently, the amount of imported primary aluminum entering China through discharge processing trade may increase. However, due to the closure of primary aluminum import window and the imminent resumption of aluminum production capacity in Yunnan, the total amount of imported primary aluminum in March may slightly decrease from the previous month. Taking into account long-term orders and other factors, SMM predicts that primary aluminum will maintain a net import in 2024, and the average monthly net import will remain high.