Yunnan output cuts reduced China’s daily aluminum production in November, full-year output projected at 41.5 million mt

SMM reports China's November aluminum output at 3.488 million mt, up 4.6% YoY. Yunnan's shutdowns cut domestic daily output by 1,185 mt to 116,300. January-November total reached 37.946 million mt, up 3.6% YoY. November saw minor shifts in China's aluminum billet production. Yunnan's cuts mainly hit ingot output, key for the processing sector. SMM notes the molten aluminum’s share rose 3 points to 73.4% MoM. November's domestic aluminum cast ingot volume was around 928,000 mt, down 10% YoY, and January-November total was about 11.138 million mt, down 10.4% YoY.

SMM states that as of November, China's aluminum installed capacity is about 45.19 million mt, operating capacity is around 41.89 million mt, and industry operating rates have dropped 2.4% MoM to 92.7%.

Forecast: December may see slight new domestic capacity. Yunnan's current operating capacity is above its historical average, with uncertain power supply. Other regions should remain stable. Short-term, domestic aluminum capacity is expected to stay steady, but watch the southwest's power situation.

SMM predicts December's aluminum output at 3.56 million mt over 31 days, up 3.5% YoY, with 2023's total expected at 41.5 million mt, up 3.6% YoY.