SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On December 4

SHANGHAI, December 4(SMM) –

At last Friday’s night session, the most-traded SHFE 2401 aluminum contract opened at 18545 yuan/mt, with its low and high at 18545 yuan/mt and 18695 yuan/mt before closing at 18690 yuan/mt, up 135 yuan/mt or 0.73%. LME aluminum opened at $2198/mt last Friday, with its high and low at $2217/mt and $2183/mt respectively before closing at $2200/mt, an increase of $6/mt or 0.27%.

On the macro front, market expectations for the end of the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle have increased again. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech strengthened the market's confidence that the Federal Reserve has completed monetary policy tightening and may start cutting interest rates starting in March next year. Domestic macroeconomic data have weakened, and the manufacturing PMI index remained below 50%. There are growing expectations for the release of domestic favorable policies at the end of the year, but it will still take time to transmit to the manufacturing industry and other sectors. In terms of fundamentals, there are no further changes expected on the supply side in the short term, and market trading logic generally focuses on the resilience of consumer demand in the off-season. The short-term macro atmosphere is negative and the off-season will pressure aluminum prices. At the same time, inventory continues to be reduced, giving aluminum prices certain support.