According to SMM, actual polysilicon production in October was 144,000 mt, up 6.7% MoM but inched down from previous estimate of 148,000 mt. SMM expected polysilicon production will increase in November and December, but to a limited extent, and polysilicon market sentiment will even soften in December. The output increase could even cease for the first time amid year-end demand sluggishness.
A big part of the reason behind a MoM rise in output in October boiled down to two things. One thing was ramp-up of newly added capacity, such as Leshan Phase III, Inner Mongolia Xinte, Inner Mongolia GCL, among others. The other thing was restart of production lines from some accidents and maintenance in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, except for ongoing accident-generated shutdown of the second phase of a small-to-medium-sized enterprise in Inner Mongolia.
SMM expected that polysilicon output will be about 152,000 mt in November, owing to production of Hoshine Xinjiang at the end of October and continued ramp-up of new capacity. In addition, Qiya Group’s 100,000-mt project was put into trial production and may yield some output in November. Meanwhile, a Sichuan-based leading polysilicon producer planned to shut down old capacity for maintenance, which may lessen supply in November.
For December, SMM predicted that polysilicon output will cease hiking or even shrink for the first time to around 149,000 mt. The main reason for the decline will be price erosions and collapse in scheduled silicon wafer production. In addition, with ongoing high scheduled polysilicon output in November, polysilicon inventory may build up significantly. And polysilicon prices will fall further and may even fall below the cost line of some second- and third-tier companies by the end of the month. Under this circumstance, SMM believed that some polysilicon producers may cut production or even suspend production for maintenance towards the end of the year.
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