Summary of SMM Lead Morning Meeting on July 31, 2023

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,156/mt, and hit a session low of $2,148/mt at the beginning and then shook up to $2,167/mt, and finally closed at $2,155/mt, down 0.07%. Its open interest decreased by 735 lots to 120,000 lots compared with last Thursday, and its trading volume decreased by 1,186 lots to 3,948 lots.

Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2309 contract opened at 15,975 yuan/mt and dived to a low of 15,940 yuan/mt after the opening, but then fluctuated around 15,970 yuan/mt and finally closed at 15,965 yuan/mt, up 0.06%. Its open interest increased by 574 lots to 106,000 lots compared with last Thursday, and its trading volume decreased by 34,609 lots to 21,289 lots.

On the macro level, we should pay attention to the official manufacturing PMI data in China and the Chicago PMI data in the United States on July 31. In terms of spot fundamentals, since late July, several smelters have resumed operation, and newly expanded production lines for secondary refined lead were gradually opened up, thus the supply of lead ingots gradually increased. The terminal consumption in the downstream battery market is average, while lead prices have risen, adding to the production costs of lead-acid battery companies. Recently, some enterprises have raised the price of batteries, and sales promotion in the battery wholesale market has weakened. At present, the operating rate of medium and large enterprises is mostly 70-80%. On the whole, the fluctuations of lead prices will expand in the short term.