SMM daily review and forecast for iron ore

On the DCE, iron ore futures trended weaker today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 764 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell 3–5 yuan from the previous day.

[SMM Hot Rolled Coil Daily Transactions] On June 11, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coils among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 13,220 mt, down 1,030 mt day-on-day, or -7.9%, Gregorian YoY +0.92%, and lunar YoY -6.31%.

[SMM Analysis] Slight Stainless Steel Inventory Destocking Amid Weak Off-Season Demand and Proactive Clearing by Traders SMM, June 11 – This week, stainless steel social inventories extended the previous destocking trend, with total inventory pulling back slightly again. Total inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined from 940,400 mt on June 4, 2026, to 932,900 mt on June 11, down 0.8% WoW. Under the off-season conditions, inventories continued to show a slight destocking trend. This week, macro headwinds outside China continued to intensify, and SS futures declined in successive sessions, dragging stainless steel spot prices down in tandem. Overall market pessimism deepened. On top of this, the industry formally entered the traditional consumption off-season. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users stayed high, actual just-in-time procurement was relatively weak, and overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. The demand side would have created inventory buildup pressure. However, the supply side and the circulation sector provided a strong offset, effectively neutralizing the inventory accumulation risk caused by weak off-season demand. On one hand, multiple stainless steel mills gradually implemented production cuts and maintenance during the month, leading to downward adjustments in production schedules. On the other hand, the persistent decline in futures heightened industry concerns about the near-term outlook. Traders widely held pessimistic expectations, and the market mainly operated with an approach of proactive selling and reducing their own inventories. Price concessions to clear inventory were common, accelerating the turnover of spot goods in the market. Amid the opposing tug-of-war between supply and demand, stainless steel social inventories pulled back slightly further this week. On the whole, weak just-in-time demand during the off-season and persistently sluggish transactions were potential bearish factors for inventory buildup, while the marginal supply contraction from steel mill maintenance and traders' concentrated proactive inventory clearing were the factors behind this week's ...