On July 21st, SMM reported that overnight copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) opened at $8,573.5 per tonne, touched a high of $8,581.5 per tonne at the beginning of the session, and then steadily declined, reaching a low of $8,455 per tonne at the end of the session. Finally, it closed at $8,457.5 per tonne, with a trading volume of 18,000 lots and an open interest of 270,000 lots, resulting in a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the overnight copper futures contract 2308 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened at ¥68,960 per tonne, briefly reaching a high of ¥68,970 per tonne at the start of the session, and then experienced a volatile downturn, touching a low of ¥68,430 per tonne near the session's end. Ultimately, it settled at ¥68,460 per tonne, with a trading volume of 23,000 lots and an open interest of 164,000 lots, marking a 0.09% decrease.
On the macroeconomic front, data released last night showed an unexpected decline in initial jobless claims in the United States. If the economy remains strong, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, leading to an increase in the US Dollar Index (USD Index). However, the market still holds hopes that the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes after its July meeting. In terms of fundamentals, the market activity in the East China region was relatively low yesterday. Although there were low-priced goods circulating in the market, downstream purchases were cautious. In the South China region, inventories declined for three consecutive days, mainly due to the relatively low arrival of copper shipments. As copper prices stabilized and premiums remained relatively low, downstream buyers took the opportunity to make replenishments. In terms of consumption, copper prices have been fluctuating within a certain range recently. Although they have not yet reached the expected price levels of downstream consumers, many processing enterprises actively made purchases during the period of low spot premiums.
Regarding price trends, despite the support for further interest rate hikes by the US employment data, market expectations differ, leading to only a slight downward shift in the center of copper prices.
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