In just over three months, Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who pioneered the use of the spread between 10-year and 3-month US Treasury yields as an indicator of future economic growth, completely changed his views on US economic prospects.
Harvey said this week that the huge inversion between 10-year and three-month US Treasury yields indicates the possibility of a "deep recession" in the US economy.
Harvey said on Wednesday that the current inversion of the spread between 10-year/3-month US Treasury yields is very alarming relative to the current yield level, which is equivalent to a huge and serious inversion.
As of Wednesday, the inversion between US 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields reached -155.8 basis points, significantly larger than that seen before the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and in the late 1980s.
This inversion of the yield curve typically provides early warning of a recession six to 18 months ahead.
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