Lead Prices to Hover at Lows This Week as Two Political Sessions to Take Place

SHANGHAI, Feb 27 (SMM) – The National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), as an important window and indicator for observing the annual economic development, will take place on March 4 and March 5. In the meantime, market players stood on the sidelines, expecting policy support for post-pandemic economic reviving in 2023.

 Overseas markets need to continue to pay attention to the attitude of Fed officials towards the interest rate hike. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting in February showed that voters supported the US dollar rate hike, but the rate increase slowed down. LME lead stocks have increased for three consecutive weeks, and the increase has slowed down last week. After the sharp drop in LME lead prices, contango of LME cash to the three-month contract narrowed but remained in a negative territory, registering -$5.75/mt as of February 23.

 In terms of fundamentals, European lead smelters are expected to resume production. There was no bright spot in consumption. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, LME lead will meet resistance and move between $2,035-2,155/mt this week. Regional supply differences combined with the secondary lead price exceeding primary lead price prompted downstream buyers to work through inventories in social warehouses stocks. This precipitated a sharp decline in lead ingot inventories, providing certain support for lead prices. Entering March, as the traditional low season is approaching, some lead smelters have maintenance plans. The supply and demand of lead ingots are expected to drop.

It is expected that lead prices will hover at low levels in the near term. The most active SHFE lead contract is expected to stand at 15,200-15,450 yuan/mt this week. The spot prices are expected to move between 15,000-15,250 yuan/mt. Spot trading will be subdued this week amid limited downstream purchasing and month-end cash flow issues. The inventory decline may not continue. Large-scale smelters of primary lead and secondary lead may mainly sell under long-term orders. Quotes under small orders will be firm considering the low profit. Spot discounts may be narrowed.