Only disclose year-on-year growth data, do not disclose specific performance, Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ) left a trace of suspense to the market. According to a report provided by lithium salt experts to the Financial Associated Press, it is speculated that the total net profit of Tianqi lithium industry from January to February is 1.642 billion yuan.
The above experts divide the net profit of Tianqi Lithium Industry into three parts, namely SQM profit, Tellyson profit and lithium salt profit. It is worth noting that as Tianqi lithium industry only disclose revenue growth, due to the existence of contract manufacturing, VPF, financial costs and other uncertain factors, so there may be a huge deviation.
Among them, it is inferred that the profit of SQM1-February belonging to Tianqi Lithium Industry is 231 million yuan. Tianqi Lithium still owns 23.75% of SQMQ4, according to Bloomberg's consensus estimate of EPS of 0.88, corresponding to Tianqi Lithium SQM profit of 231 million yuan. At the same time, considering the rapid upward price of Q1 bulk order, it is expected that the performance of SQMQ1 will be much higher than expected.
Terlison contributed a net profit of about 426 million yuan from January to February. Data show that Terlison's transport volume from January to June in 2021 is 260400 tons, assuming that its shipments are linear, corresponding to 86800 tons in January-February 2021. Tianqi lithium industry revealed that January-February sales in 2022 rose 56% year-on-year, corresponding to 135400 tons in January-February 2022.
In terms of price, according to IGO guidelines, the price of Tellyson's chemical grade ore from January to July 2022 is about US $1770. Based on the Q4 quarter IGO disclosed that Tylison's cost is about US $283.24, Tellyson's gross profit per ton is about US $1487 per tonne.
As Wenfield (Tellyson) profit is not a simple volume-price relationship, taking into account the financial costs, exchange gains and losses, Australian tax rate and other effects, experts comprehensively consider, it is predicted that Tellyson's net profit of 26.01% equity held by Tianqi lithium industry from January to February is about 426 million yuan.
In terms of lithium salt, assuming that Tianqi lithium industry shipments are linear, Tianqi lithium industry's own factory sales are expected to be 6385 tons from January to February, corresponding to 5577 tons of lithium carbonate and 808 tons of lithium hydroxide, according to a reporter from the Financial Associated Press confirmed to Tianqi lithium industry, the company may have sporadic maintenance in individual bases, but it does not affect the overall capacity utilization.
If we assume that Tianqi Lithium Industry shipped the same volume from January to February in 2021 and 2022, then under the 492% year-on-year increase in revenue, it is equivalent to a 492% year-on-year increase in the price of lithium salt. It is inferred that from January to February, the average price of lithium carbonate in Tianqi lithium industry is 334600 yuan / ton, the average price of lithium hydroxide is 274000 yuan / ton, and the corresponding net profit per ton is 158900 yuan / ton and 122800 yuan / ton respectively. According to this calculation, experts estimate that the total net profit of lithium salt in Tianqi Lithium Industry from January to February is 985 million yuan.
On the evening of March 15, Tianqi Lithium Industry announced that from January to February, the company's lithium concentrate production increased by about 39% year-on-year, sales increased by about 56% year-on-year, and lithium concentrate revenue is expected to increase by about 366% year-on-year. From January to February, the company expects revenue from lithium compounds and their derivatives to increase by about 492% year-on-year.
As for the reasons for the sharp increase in revenue, the company explained that in 2022, due to the substantial increase in demand and sales of downstream new energy vehicles, the imbalance between supply and demand of lithium products has become more obvious, and the sales prices of the company's main lithium products have increased rapidly. products are in short supply.
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