The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage in the 14th five-year Plan. Emphasis is placed on promoting diversified technological development and safety control, and demonstration pilot projects are used to promote the industrialization of new energy storage. By 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development, and by 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented. Basically meet the needs of the construction of a new power system. We believe that with the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual emergence of economy, the development of new global energy storage will usher in a period of rapid development. The development of the new energy storage industry is dominated by electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium-ion batteries, with emphasis on Sunshine Power, Deye shares, Ningde Times, Suwen Electric Power, Xu Ji Electric and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to Kehua data, Shenghong shares, Invik, Gaolan shares, Bluebird Fire and so on.
On February 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the "implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage in the 14th five-year Plan" (referred to as the "implementation Plan"). Our comments on this are as follows:
According to the implementation Plan, the new type of energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development by 2025.
Compared with the previous documents, there is no specific description of the installed scale of the "implementation plan". It is emphasized that by 2025, the new type of energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. it is beneficial to the full development of energy storage, installation and proportion of renewable energy. It emphasizes that the electrochemical energy storage technology can improve and reduce the cost by more than 30%, and highlight the engineering application of steam extraction and energy storage of thermal and nuclear power units and 100 megawatt compressed air energy storage technology. this shows that cost is one of the important factors to promote the development of new energy storage scale and speed up industrial application. The "implementation Plan" also proposes that by 2030, the new energy storage will be fully market-oriented, basically meet the needs of building a new power system, and fully support the realization of the goal of carbon peak in the energy field as scheduled.
We will promote diversified technological development and safety control, and use demonstration pilot projects to promote the industrialization of new types of energy storage.
The implementation plan emphasizes the development and industrialization of different energy storage technologies, and strengthens the requirements for energy storage safety, which is conducive to the standardized development of new energy storage systems. Focus on:
1) promote the development of diversified energy storage technology and the integration of industry, university, research and application. Actively carry out the research and development of key core technologies and equipment, such as sodium ion battery, new lithium-ion battery, lead-carbon battery and liquid flow battery, and tackle key problems and reserve a new generation of energy storage technology.
2) emphasize the safety control of the whole process. Break through the key safety technologies in the whole process, such as battery safety control, system safety early warning, efficient fire fighting, research and access to Electroweb control, protection and security defense. Focus on all kinds of application scenarios;
3) pilot demonstration projects should be used to promote the development of energy storage industrialization. We will carry out pilot projects for the classification of technological routes such as liquid flow batteries, flywheels, sodium ions and solid-state lithium batteries, and promote pilot demonstration projects of new multi-time-scale energy storage technologies, such as second-and minute-level applications, short-time, high-frequency, and so on.
It emphasizes the role of promoting the large-scale development of energy storage and supporting the new power system.
Previous documents have clearly defined the independent market position of energy storage in the new power system. The "implementation Plan" further refines the development models of various application scenarios on the power side, Electroweb side and user side, and formulates differentiated support policies to reasonably dredge costs to speed up the marketization of new energy storage. For example, the allocation and storage projects should be connected to the grid first, the capacity price mechanism of independent energy storage power stations on the Electroweb side should be established, the time-sharing electricity price policy should be implemented, and the peak-valley price gap should be widened to increase the user-side energy storage income channels to promote the development of user-side energy storage. The new power system is experiencing the change from "source-network-load" to "source-grid-load-storage". The implementation plan emphasizes the continuous optimization of construction layout, promotes the integrated development of new energy storage and power system, and supports the construction of new power system.
With the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual emergence of economy, there is a broad space for the development of the new type of energy storage.
According to the policy requirements and storage requirements of different application scenarios, we judge that the global energy storage market from 2021 to 2025 is expected to release 20.1/32.7/52.5/65.3/93.2GW energy storage construction demand along with the energy transformation and downstream power demand construction rhythm, respectively. The capacity demand under the comprehensive backup time is estimated to be 38.8, 68.5, 108.1, 158.8 / 235.7GWh respectively. The new type of energy storage is mainly electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium-ion battery. The electrochemical energy storage system is mainly composed of battery pack, bi-directional converter (PCS), energy management system (EMS), battery management system (BMS) and other electrical equipment. Electrochemical energy storage has great potential for development, and leaders in various fields have laid out different links of the energy storage track in advance. In the case of rapid growth of parts driven by industry demand, we believe that system solution providers with brands, channels and core components will win in the future energy storage market.
"risk factors:
Operators' capital expenditure is lower than expected; Internet of things application; 5G industrialization is lower than expected.
"Investment strategy:
With the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual emergence of economy, the new type of energy storage has a broad space for development. At present, the development of the new energy storage industry is mainly electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium ion battery. we mainly recommend Sunshine Power, Deye shares, Ningde era (covered by new energy automobile group), Suwen Electric Power, Xu Ji Electric and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to Kehua data, Shenghong shares, Invik, Gaolan shares, Bluebird Fire Protection and so on.
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