New Lake Futures: overseas supply disruptions worry about short-term volatility of aluminum prices

Published: Feb 15, 2022 10:15

The United States and Europe kept noisy about the situation in Russia and Ukraine and threatened to tighten sanctions against Russia, raising concerns about the hindrance of aluminum exports to Russia. Overnight outing aluminum prices rose again, and the LSE's three-month aluminum price closed up 0.91 per cent to $3228 per ton. Shanghai aluminum night trading first suppressed and then rose, the main 2203 contract closed slightly less than 22645 yuan / ton.

The overall performance of the spot market is mediocre, with the downstream resuming work one after another, but mainly purchasing on demand. The consignors all lowered their quotations to increase shipments. The mainstream transaction price in Shanghai is about 22580 yuan / ton, which is about 60% lower than that of futures. The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is about 22770 yuan / ton.

The epidemic in Baise in Guangxi has been brought under control, and community control has begun to be lifted, transportation is expected to resume soon, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina temporarily shut down will resume operation, and local aluminum ingots will resume supply to consumer areas, which to a certain extent alleviates concerns about domestic supply interference. However, there are still concerns about overseas interference, supporting the strengthening of aluminum prices in the outer disk and driving domestic aluminum prices. Short-term aluminum prices to maintain or high shock trend, it is recommended to operate mainly within the range.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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