Today, lithium carbonate rose another 6000 yuan to break through the 350000 mark! The idea of "Lithium OPEC" was mentioned again [SMM Express]

SMM January 24th: today, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 6000 yuan / ton to 355000 yuan / ton, up 77000 yuan / ton or 27.7% from the beginning of the year.

"Click to view the spot historical price of SMM new energy products.

The price of domestic industrial zero-grade lithium carbonate has also continued to rise recently. today, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate Synchronize rose 6000 yuan / ton to 337000 yuan / ton, up 78500 yuan / ton, or 30.37%, from the beginning of the year. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide also rose with Synchronize today, rising 4000 yuan / ton in a single day to 293500 yuan / ton, moving towards the price of 300000 per ton.

According to SMM research, the reason for the recent sharp rise in lithium hydroxide prices is that in January, under the influence of the impulse of high-nickel batteries, the demand for electrohydrogen of materials increased significantly, there was a gap in the market, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose.

In terms of lithium carbonate, in January, when the overhaul of some lithium salt enterprises led to a reduction in supply, the market was hard to get. Recently, the mainstream head enterprises have few quotations, and a small number of small and medium-sized lithium salt factories and material factories have quoted a small amount of 36.5-370000 yuan / ton, as some enterprises still have a gap, procurement is still continuing. In terms of industrial carbon, there is no obvious volume in Qinghai for the time being, and some quasi-electric carbon may be signed, and the price is expected to remain high. "View details

On the news side, foreign media recently reported that Bolivia, Argentina and Chile, the three countries with the world's richest lithium mineral resources, are discussing the establishment of an organization similar to the "Association of Lithium producing countries." for a while, there has been a lot of discussion about "Lithium OPEC."

Industry insiders believe that once "lithium OPEC" can become a reality, the three countries with the richest lithium resources will implement a unified quota system for lithium mining, which is intended to maintain the reasonable and stable lithium price and maximize the economic benefits of lithium resources.

It is reported that the idea was first put forward by the Argentine authorities as early as 2011 in order to control the price of lithium mines and prevent excessive exploitation of lithium resources. However, in the process of the continuous change of political situation in the three countries, the idea has been shelved again and again.

This time the idea of "lithium OPEC" was mentioned again because it caught up with Chile's incoming president, Gabriel Boric. It is reported that compared with the right-wing position of the current Chilean president, the new president Boric is more left-wing, opposing the privatization of mineral resources and advocating the idea of state power to regulate and control mineral resources coincides with the idea of "Lithium OPEC".

According to the USGS, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile ranked among the top three lithium resources in the world in 2020, of which Bolivia ranked first with 21 million tons, 17 million tons and 9 million tons. From the perspective of global lithium reserves, the total lithium resources of the three countries account for 58%, which even exceeds the total lithium resources of other parts of the world. Therefore, the three South American countries bordering each other are also known as the lithium mining "Golden Triangle" countries.

Therefore, as the leader of the global lithium mine, once the decision of the "iron triangle" of the lithium mine hits the ground, the impact on the global lithium market is absolutely obvious. According to a recent survey by SMM, the total production capacity of lithium concentrate in spodumene mines worldwide is about 2.7 million tons in 2021, a decrease of about 8 per cent compared with the same period last year. Among them, the rapid expansion of lithium mine in the early stage led to the imbalance between supply and demand and the decline of lithium price, which led to the bankruptcy and reorganization of Altura mine due to its low price, which was unable to support production operation and fell into a state of suspension, resulting in a reduction in production capacity.

However, looking at the domestic lithium mine, SMM estimates that the inventory of spodumene concentrate in China was about 240000 tons at the end of December 2021, a sharp drop of 50% compared with the same period last year. Entering 2022, the restart of some overseas mines may bring obvious increments, but with the continuous expansion of downstream demand, market inventories will still be further consumed. "View details

Northeast Securities said that in the next three years, the supply of overseas mainstream lithium resources, such as Western Australia Lithium Mine and South American Salt Lake, will be relatively limited. According to estimates, the lithium industry is expected to have a shortage of 6000 tons and 2000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, which is expected to support the upward price of lithium.

In terms of lithium salts, open source securities explain why lithium carbonate prices have been rising recently. They believe that the recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is affected by the limited supply of natural gas in the western region. On the other hand, the low temperature in winter also affects the extraction of lithium from salt lakes. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand in 2022 will be concentrated in the first quarter, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to ease at the end of the first quarter of 2022. Lithium prices are expected to remain high throughout the year in 2022.