Basic Chemical Industry Weekly report: titanium dioxide continues to warm up silicone prices rebound periodically [Agency Review]

Agricultural materials: the prosperity of pesticides is differentiated, and the light storage of chemical fertilizers is continuously promoted. The demand for pesticides is in the off-season, the prices of different varieties of crude drugs are obviously different, the prices of glyphosate continue to rise due to low stocks and prosperous exports, and the prices of chlorpyrifos and permethrin are adjusted according to the prices of raw materials. At the chemical fertilizer level, winter storage exists as a supporting demand, nitrogen fertilizer prices continue to adjust, low stocks support high phosphate fertilizer boom, potash fertilizer import supply is tight to maintain high levels, compound fertilizer continues to consolidate in the downstream high price conflict, spring ploughing is expected that single fertilizer will remain weak due to export policy, and the price gap of compound fertilizer is expected to widen.

Polyurethane: off-season maintenance to improve supply and demand, MDI prices continue to fluctuate adjustment. In December, the listing price of factory aggregate MDI and pure MDI was 21500 yuan / ton and 22500 yuan / ton. This week's prices were 20283 yuan / ton and 20800 yuan / ton respectively, up slightly from the previous month. At present, the domestic supply capacity has rebounded, but the poor acceptance of high prices downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement. At present, near the end of the year, the supply side control and equipment maintenance improve the relationship between supply and demand, and it is expected that the short-term aggregate MDI price will be mainly adjusted by shock.

Silicon industry: silicone overhaul promotes a rebound in prices and periodic bottoming of metal silicon in the dry season. As the price of silicon metal falls, the cost support of organosilicon continues to weaken. Looking back at the off-season of the domestic demand market, some manufacturers plan to overhaul in December and the new production capacity is not released as scheduled, showing a weak situation between supply and demand, and silicone enterprises promote sales in the off-season. It is expected that the price center of gravity will stabilize in the short term. In terms of metal silicon, the decline in hydropower will promote the tightening of supply and demand, but the recent decline in demand in the downstream aluminum processing industry and silicone industry has brought some disturbance, and it is expected that short-term prices will gradually bottom out.

Titanium dioxide: the supply of titanium dioxide continues to decline in the off-season, and the price of titanium dioxide picks up. Titanium dioxide is in the traditional off-season. The main current prices of rutile, anatase and chlorinated titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid process are 1.87-2.03, 1.73-1.85 and 2.25-2.45 thousand yuan / ton, respectively. The current raw material end 46% titanium concentrate is 2130-2550 yuan / ton, 92% high titanium slag is 9400 yuan / ton, the cost support is still there. After the material, the market sentiment of titanium dioxide has warmed up under the cost support + leading enterprises to take the lead in the price increase letter, and the domestic demand market is still in the off-season + the situation of weak supply and demand is expected to continue for some time under the constraints of the Winter Olympic Games. Titanium dioxide prices are expected to rise in shock.

Vitamins: the aquaculture industry is a drag on demand + replenishment is slow, and the price of vitamins is weak. This week Weisheng VC, VB3, VA and VE quote 40,54,270 and 88 yuan / kg. Due to the weak demand for aquaculture feed, the digestion speed of terminal inventory is slow, and the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand. VE and VA due to the annual overhaul overlay the production of major suppliers is blocked, waiting for the peak purchasing season prices to start to rise.

Dyes: the cost supports the stable operation of the price, and continues to wait for the chemical fiber to recover. This week, the dye reactive black WNN 150% and disperse black ECT 300% rose to 21000 and 24000 yuan / ton, resorcinol weak reported 728000 yuan / ton in July, and H acid rose to 37,000 yuan / ton. If the chemical fiber peak season demeanor rebounds, is expected to drive upstream dye demand, cost support is expected to maintain a high level of short-term dyestuff operation, the price continues to repair.

Investment advice: on the investment thinking in 2022, based on the caution on the demand side, we generally believe that it is appropriate to grow before the white horse, the core of growth is the Nuggets in the field of new materials, and the white horse is the target of those industry status protruding + systematic underestimation. It is appropriate to make great efforts to lay out the PB after it returns to a relatively neutral position. At present, we are clearly optimistic about the spring ploughing market of agricultural materials, the fertilizer end strongly pushes Yuntu Holdings and New Yangfeng, and the pesticide side suggests paying attention to Xin'an shares, Xingfa Group and Jiangshan shares; in addition, with the accelerating market of new materials, it is expected that the Baima market will start ahead of schedule, pushing Wanhua Chemical, Xinhecheng, Longbai Group and Yangnong Chemical.

Risk hint: demand is not as good as expected, and production capacity is not as fast as expected.