In the last week of 2021, the shortage of energy metals has once again become the focus of market discussion.
The weekend before, the news of the third round of lithium salt price increase in 2021 was quietly fermented, and some lithium enterprises received quotations of 300000 yuan / ton. In addition, driven by downstream demand, lithium salt supply is insufficient, upstream enterprises basically do not implement long orders, spot "one mine is difficult to obtain".
The supply of lithium resources will no longer be "stuck" in 2022.
Since the beginning of this week, the quotations of some lithium materials have continued to rise for three consecutive days, and the prices of lithium salt materials such as lithium, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have been raised across the board. In addition to upstream energy metals, according to SMM historical prices, lithium iron phosphate also rose sharply in 2021. The price of lithium iron phosphate was 38000 yuan / ton in January and 105000 yuan / ton as of December 28, up 176.32 percent for the whole year.
The lithium market strengthened in the middle of the year, and institutions have conducted research: due to the problem of capacity cycle construction, the incremental supply of global lithium resources in the second half of this year is very small. As the agency expected, in the second half of the year, the price of lithium resources rose at the rate of rockets, and the auction prices of lithium mines from the other side of the ocean also reached new highs.
With regard to the sharp rise in lithium prices at the end of the year, CITIC Securities believes that it is once again magnified the contradiction of supply in the early stage. By the way, he looked forward to the prospect of 2022, saying that the increase in global lithium supply in the new year is expected to reach about 180000 tons, which can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of the electric vehicle industry.
It also suggests that the current lithium price is high and the market's perception of the price rise is gradually blunted, which may have a reverse effect on the stock market. But the enthusiasm of the capital market has not been extinguished. This week, the upstream market of lithium electricity is hot again. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, the two major leaders of lithium salt, have risen for three days in a row, and the concept stocks of lithium extraction from Salt Lake on the overfallen plate have risen particularly fiercely. Yongxing Materials, Zangge Mining shares hit new highs in midday trading on Wednesday, and small-cap shares of General Motors grabbed three consecutive plates this week.
The market is hot, but Tianfeng Securities also held up the "fire extinguisher", saying that it is more important to pay more attention to performance and price persistence than the surge in short-term lithium prices. This view is similar to the plate layout thinking of CITIC Securities. With the improvement of industrial demand in 2022, institutions are optimistic about the sustainability of upstream lithium resources in the industrial chain. In the new year, the catalyst and upward driving force of the plate will shift from "price increases" to "performance".
At present, the vast majority of lithium power stock annual reports have not yet been released, and only three quarterly reports are available for reference. Among the leaders in lithium mining and salt lake lithium resources, Jiuwo Hi-Tech, Tibet Mining and Xianfeng Holdings had the highest month-on-month increase in net profit in the third quarter of 2021, while the third-quarter net profit of Salt Lake shares resumed with a high profile in August "crushed" BYD, Ganfeng Lithium Industry and Huayou Cobalt Industry, ranking first among concept stocks.
2022, the battle for lithium resources is refocused.
After the "highlight moment" in the middle of the year, the market of A-share energy metal plate began to enter a consolidation period, but the battle between production expansion and supply protection of lithium salt suppliers is becoming more and more intense. In October, Zijin Mining spent 5 billion yuan to compete with the "ferocious" of the Ningde era; in November, Huayou Cobalt wholly acquired the Arcadia lithium mine; and in December, the century-old overseas mining company Rio Tinto won the Rincon Salt Lake project in Argentina. The "lithium resource anxiety" of the industrial chain has never stopped.
GE Jun of Minmetals Securities commented that in the era of clean energy revolution, the global competition for "future white oil"-lithium resources is heating up, and it is extremely urgent to ensure the security of supply. this, in turn, confirms the strategic value of lithium resources already on hand in the world, as well as the strategic value of China's local lithium resources.
The local lithium resource leader performed relatively steadily in the second half of the year. Take Tianqi lithium industry as an example, even if market concerns about the rapid rise in lithium prices and insufficient supply lead to significant adjustments in the plate, stock prices have always been significantly supported in fluctuations.
Under the background of double control, enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources are still favored by institutions after the power restriction and production restriction of enterprises and the high adjustment of positions of fund managers at the end of 2021. The situation of the new capacity of lithium resources in the upper reaches this year and next is now clear, and the increase in the smelting cost of lithium salt in the middle reaches has also begun to be effectively transmitted downstream (LG plans to raise the price of cylindrical batteries by 10% in January 2022, Penghui Energy, BYD consumer batteries, etc.). If there is a big wave to clean up the sand, those who have "lithium" will still travel all over the world.
