SMM survey: what kind of metal do you like most in 2022?
SMM Dec. 20: today, the lithium battery index fell after a brief uptick, and remained unchanged in the afternoon. By the close, the lithium battery index fell as much as 2.54%, recording its second consecutive day of decline. At the same time, the performance of lithium battery stocks is not optimistic, Ganfeng lithium industry closed down 8.52%, Yiwei lithium energy, blue lithium core fell more than 5%, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Shengxin lithium energy and other stocks fell.
Citic Securities said that this year's high-boom sector may usher in a rapid decline in earnings growth next year. Although the high-end sectors with faster growth this year are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate next year, the absolute growth rate is likely to decline significantly. For example, the profit growth rate of the new energy vehicle sector is expected to decline by 197 pcts. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the game of institutional investors for high-level and high-prosperity sectors will also be more intense. In this case, the low plate has a comparative advantage.
However, it is worth mentioning that although the lithium battery plate recently showed a significant correction, but the performance of lithium prices is still strong. According to the spot price of SMM, as of December 20, the average spot price of lithium metal was 1175000 yuan / ton, up 20, 000 yuan / ton from yesterday.
"Click to view the price of SMM new energy products
At the same time, the rising trend of battery-grade lithium carbonate remains unabated. As of December 20, the latest average spot price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate was 214500 yuan / ton, up 161500 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, or 304.7%.
For the recent lithium carbonate prices accelerate uplink reasons, SMM analysis, mainly due to the downstream lithium iron phosphate market expansion plant, capacity climbing more rapidly, increasing the demand for upstream raw materials, resulting in the industry into a "volume" state, which from time to time there is a high price lock volume lock the situation, superimposed part of lithium carbonate manufacturers hoarding goods to promote lithium carbonate prices upward.
For lithium, SMM believes that domestic lithium resources show obvious destocking in 2021, with prices rising by as much as 350%. Now approaching the end of the year, downstream inventory and procurement demand surging, raw material competition is under way. "View details
Not only spot prices, although the lithium battery plate a sharp correction, but a number of institutions are still optimistic about lithium prices in the future. Huaan Securities believes that the gas restriction policy in winter heating season in Qinghai has a certain impact on local salt lake production, and the tight situation of domestic lithium supply remains unchanged. At the same time, terminal demand continues to be high, with domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching a record high from January to November this year, with a cumulative output of more than 3 million. In the context of the continuous expansion of production and marketing of new energy vehicles, the market demand for lithium salt continues to improve, and lithium prices are expected to remain high.
Western Securities said that from the current supply and demand pattern, the decline in domestic salt lake winter capacity load and the limited supply increment of overseas mines is still difficult to change, lithium mine supply remains in short supply, and lithium prices are expected to continue to rise driven by demand.
Huachuang Securities believes that near the end of the New year, downstream manufacturers actively stock, there is no increase in lithium supply, lithium prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term.
In the medium term, the upstream lithium mine development cycle is longer, the supply will be difficult to change in the short term, downstream electric vehicles and energy storage have accounted for more than 60% of lithium demand, with the high growth of downstream demand, lithium prices are expected to rise again in the tight balance of supply and demand.
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