Toyota 2025, Mercedes-Benz 2026 multinational car companies want to use solid-state batteries to achieve "lane change overtaking"?

Overseas car companies, which lag behind in the field of traditional solid liquid lithium electricity, are planning to use solid-state battery technology to realize "lane-changing overtaking" on the new energy track. In the face of the future, domestic mainframe factories are also unwilling to be lonely, and a larger and wider "bet" on solid-state battery technology is spreading all over the world.

"We will start selling cars with solid-state batteries around 2025." Gerald Kilman (Gerald Killman), Toyota's head of European research and development, recently revealed that Toyota has produced a test prototype equipped with solid-state battery technology in 2020 and is carrying out durability-led development. "our goal is to use solid-state batteries in hybrid vehicles first and then in pure electric vehicles."

In the view of Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice president of China Electric vehicle Association, while accepting that the field of mass-produced batteries cannot surpass China, European, American, Japanese and Korean companies have taken the lead in the research and development of the next generation of solid-state batteries. "from the perspective of sustainable development of the battery industry, it is estimated that existing lithium-ion batteries, including solid-liquid mixed lithium-ion batteries, will be absolutely dominant until 2030, while solid-state batteries will be put into large-scale commercial applications between 2025 and 2030."

"radical" Toyota

"this is a big global goal for [Toyota] for solid-state batteries." With regard to the above statement of the person responsible for Toyota's European research and development, Toyota China told the Financial Associated Press on December 9 that around 2025, global markets, including the Chinese market, will actively consider starting to sell products equipped with solid-state batteries, "but specific markets have not yet been decided."

Solid-state battery (ASSB), is internationally recognized as the technical direction of the next generation of electric vehicle power battery. Compared with traditional lithium batteries, solid-state batteries are safer, have higher energy density, have stronger cycle performance, and are also expected to significantly reduce the cost of electric vehicles.

Some research institutions believe that the cost of mass-producing solid-state batteries is only 40% of that of current lithium-ion batteries. Battery is the biggest cost of electric vehicle, so solid-state battery has become an important research direction of the next generation of vehicle power battery.

"Toyota hopes to achieve its goal of halving the cost of bicycle batteries compared with the bZ4X model by 2030." Some Toyota insiders in China said that reducing power consumption can reduce battery capacity, which means that costs can be reduced. Toyota is currently trying to promote a full range of electrification, in the development of batteries, while promoting the research and development of a new generation of lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries and Ni-MH batteries. In the course of development, Toyota learned that the ions in the all-solid-state battery will move at high speed in the battery, thus achieving high power output. We hope that this feature can be used in hybrid models to take advantage of all-solid-state batteries. "

"the competition for electric cars will eventually become the competition for batteries." Industry insiders believe that with the continuous improvement of the permeability of new energy vehicles, the power battery market is rapidly moving towards the "TWh era". With the expansion of the scale, the technology iteration has been put on the agenda. "many car companies betting on solid-state batteries obviously believe that solid-state battery technology will usher in a leap-forward breakthrough."

"betting" has become popular.

Overseas car companies have shown unprecedented enthusiasm for solid-state batteries. On Dec. 2, Daimler and Stellantis said in statements that the two companies would make strategic investments in FactorialEner-gy, a start-up US solid-state battery manufacturer. Hyundai has already reached a partnership with the latter.

"the prototype battery will be tested as early as next year and the solid-state battery technology will be integrated into the car within five years." After reaching a strategic cooperation with Factorial Energy, Mercedes-Benz officials said. Stellantis plans to launch its first solid-state battery technology electric vehicle in 2026.

On November 29, Nissan announced that it would invest 2 trillion yen in electric vehicles over the next five years, and solid-state batteries are one of the key pillars of its medium-and long-term future strategy. According to Nissan's schedule, it will mass-produce electric vehicles equipped with proprietary all-solid-state batteries by fiscal year 2028. To this end, the all-solid-state battery development and production plant will be completed in Yokohama in fiscal year 2024.

Earlier in September, BMW and Ford announced that they were accelerating solid-state battery research and development, with plans to start carrying vehicles and testing actual operating conditions from 2022, while Volkswagen began working with QS (QuantumScape), an American power battery company, in 2012, invested $100m in 2018 to become its largest shareholder, and formed a joint venture to develop solid-state batteries, which is expected to be mass-produced after 2023. In June 2020, Volkswagen invested another $200m in QS.

Domestic car companies and battery manufacturers are also speeding up the layout of solid-state batteries. According to SkyEye, Weilan New Energy completed round C financing of about 500 million yuan on November 26, with investors including Xiaomi Group, Huawei Technology, IDG Capital, Lulai Capital and so on. The valuation of Weilan New Energy after this round of financing reached 5 billion yuan. In July, Ganfeng Lithium Industry formally signed a contract with the Technology Center of Dongfeng Company, and the two sides discussed demonstration and operation cooperation on solid-state batteries. By early 2022, Ganfeng Lithium solid-state batteries may be the first to be installed in Dongfeng E70 models to complete vehicle delivery and demonstration promotion.

In addition, SAIC and GAC respectively led the financing round of E + and E + round for the development of Qingtao, a solid-state battery enterprise.

Can I overtake?

"from a national point of view, the current all-solid-state battery is certainly the most important, the best and the largest in Japan." Ouyang Minggao said frankly that Japan has a large national plan and a detailed division of labor, while China's research and development of all-solid-state battery technology is still in its own stage, and there is no complete national plan to promote it, "so by contrast, Japan's technology should be five years ahead of China."

In addition, Ouyang Minggao said that the current domestic layout in the solid-state battery industry chain is not complete, and the core electrolyte technology does not have the strength to compete with multinational enterprises.

"although solid-state batteries are eagerly awaited in the industry, the current high cost and immature technology have restricted the process of commercialization of solid-state batteries." The insider believes that solid-state batteries will not be mass-produced for electric vehicles in the short term, and the compromise is semi-solid batteries, that is, reducing the use of some electrolytes. In addition, in order to increase future bargaining chips, some car companies have adopted diversified battery paths. "there may be many variables in the process of changing lithium-ion batteries from liquid to solid, and power batteries are entering the 'Spring and Autumn and warring States' period of various technological routes."

GAC GROUP Chairman Zeng Qinghong has revealed that GAC GROUP will certainly develop solid-state batteries. "next, the group will speed up the development of hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state cells. Now basically in the design, the technical route should be no problem. Moreover, through independent research and development in the past few years, GAC GROUP's super-speed battery, sponge silicon anode battery and other technologies have been realized. " Zeng Qinghong said.

"Lithium-ion batteries will last for a long time." In Ouyang Minggao's view, material applications and technology need to rise abruptly based on accumulated strength, and solid-state batteries will really be put into large-scale commercial applications between 2025 and 2030. "the time point for the industrialization of the first generation of all-solid-state batteries, which accounts for nearly 1% of the market, may be around 2030; after 2035, a new generation of solid-state batteries, as well as potassium, magnesium, sodium, lithium-sulfur and other types of batteries will enter the market; by 2050, liquid lithium-ion batteries are likely to be reduced to about 20%."