SMM November 30th: according to the historical price of SMM, as of November 30th, the average spot price of electrolytic cobalt is 431500 yuan / ton, which has successfully broken through 430000 yuan / ton and reached a three-year high!
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For the reasons for the continuous rise in domestic cobalt prices, an institutional analysis said that from the demand side, the global production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow high, driving the market demand for cobalt. Although high nickel and cobalt-free are the main technological paths for the future development of cathode materials for power batteries, the rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles and the increase in the carrying capacity of bicycles have still greatly increased the consumption of cobalt. Guoxin Securities predicts that by 2025, the global demand for cobalt for new energy vehicles is expected to grow at an average annual compound growth rate of more than 30%.
On the other hand, the continuing supply-side epidemic in Africa and the chaos in international shipping have also led to a continuous decline in the import of cobalt raw materials to a certain extent. According to the latest data from the customs website, China's imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 5399 metal tons in October 2021, down 31 per cent from the previous month and 49 per cent from the same period last year. From January to October, China's imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 73700 tons of metal tons, up 3 percent from the same period last year.
From January to October 2021, the average monthly import of cobalt raw materials is 7371 metal tons, of which cobalt intermediate products import an average of 6667 metal tons per month. SMM estimated the current demand for cobalt in domestic smelters and finally concluded that according to the current operating rate of domestic smelters, the monthly demand for cobalt raw materials by domestic smelters is more than 10000 metal tons, and the import of cobalt intermediate products reaches 7800-8500 metal tons in order to basically meet the demand for cobalt raw materials in smelters. Therefore, since 2021, the gap of domestic cobalt raw material inventory is still large.
Combined with feedback from cobalt raw material suppliers and smelters, shipping uncertainty will last at least until the first quarter of 2022, so SMM expects domestic cobalt raw material stocks to remain tight. Overseas electrolytic cobalt is basically good, and the price continues to rise, which makes the valuation benchmark of cobalt intermediate goods rise; spot inventory is low, cobalt intermediate products are quoted sporadically, and the spot quotation coefficient will remain high.
SMM believes that to the end of the year, to December, battery materials downstream to reduce inventory strategy, so the domestic battery material demand is relatively light, sporadic market transactions, is expected to start in January 2022 downstream batteries and terminal enterprises will be ready for the Spring Festival, market activity will increase, combined with cobalt raw material inventory low and high prices, cobalt salt prices will pick up. "View details
It is worth mentioning that the current epidemic is still a very important problem troubling the cobalt supply chain. In 2020, South Africa, the largest transit place for cobalt transport in Africa, imposed a closure policy in March with the outbreak of overseas outbreaks, resulting in poor transportation of cobalt in the global supply chain.
On November 26, there was another situation in South Africa, where mutated strains were found, and more than 1,000 cases were confirmed in a single day. Tianfeng Securities believes that if this new mutation is not effectively controlled in South Africa, the cobalt supply chain may once again face the risk of disruption.
Looking forward to the future, Tianfeng Securities believes that the downstream battery factory has entered a centralized stock period, the shortage of raw materials may be further magnified, and cobalt prices are expected to continue to hit record highs. Guoxin Securities also said that the growth of the cobalt industry is strong, from a medium-and long-term point of view, the price of cobalt is optimistic.
