In the development of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been the two most discussed technical routes in the industry. However, compared with the millions of electric vehicles in the global market, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was once quite awkward.
Data show that by the end of 2020, there are only 32535 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the world, and it is difficult to be optimistic in China, which has the largest number of new energy vehicles. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China in 2020 are 1204 and 1182 respectively, and all of them are commercial vehicles. In the same year, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in China completed 1.105 million and 1.115 million respectively, an increase of 5.4% and 11.6% respectively over the same period last year.
As soon as the pure electric vehicle was off the dust and the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle moved forward slowly, China put forward the goal of "carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060", which was first included in the government work report at the two sessions of the National Congress in 2021. So, driven by the "3060" dual-carbon target, can hydrogen fuel cell vehicles take advantage of the opportunity? The answer is yes.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the main way to achieve the goal of "double carbon".
As a large developing country dominated by coal and fossil energy, we can imagine the arduous task for our country to achieve carbon emission peak within 10 years and carbon neutralization within 40 years.
Statistics show that China is currently the largest carbon emitter in the world. In 2019, the CO2 generated by China's production and consumption activities reached 10 billion tons per year, accounting for 30% of the world's 33.1 billion tons, accounting for the highest proportion. At the same time, as China is the largest developing country in the world, CO2 emissions continue to increase, with an annual increase of about 1.5%. The United States, the European Union (including the United Kingdom) and Japan have reached their carbon peak, and their annual CO2 emissions have been on a downward trend.
From the perspective of CO2 generated by fossil energy combustion or chemical changes, the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water accounts for about 46%, the manufacturing industry accounts for about 28%, the transportation industry accounts for about 10%, the mining industry accounts for about 5%, and life and others account for about 11%. From the above, it can be seen that transportation is the third largest source of carbon emissions in China.
As an important participant in the field of transportation, the automobile industry is also facing a lot of pressure and challenges driven by the "3060-year Plan" double carbon goal. In response, Chen Xuesong, president of Great Wall Group Weipotential Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that hydrogen energy and fuel cells can help reduce carbon and decarbonization, which is the main path for China's energy and transportation reform to achieve the goal of "double carbon". "large-scale, long-term and long-distance hydrogen storage, transportation and application is the solution to the fluctuation of renewable energy; the combination of hydrogen and electricity can give full play to the characteristics of high energy density of fuel cells and high power density of power cells. fully cover the power range of the whole vehicle."
Liu Liang, chairman of Chuangshi Capital, has also stressed that the carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are a major obstacle for the country to achieve the "double carbon" goal, and hydrogen fuel cells are the most suitable new energy vehicles for commercial vehicles. "from a transportation point of view, to achieve the dual-carbon goal, we can't just focus on cars. Medium and heavy trucks actually account for 2% of carbon emissions."
Due to the advantages of a wide range of sources, clean and efficient and rich application scenarios, hydrogen energy is considered as an ideal medium to promote the clean and efficient use of traditional fossil energy and support the large-scale development of renewable energy. At present, the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other major industrialized countries and regions have incorporated hydrogen energy into their national energy strategic planning, and the pace of commercialization of hydrogen energy industry is accelerating.
Take South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group as an example, in the context of the global energy revolution, the group began to accelerate the layout of hydrogen energy. In September this year, Hyundai Automobile Group announced that it would start with the commercial vehicle field and launch all kinds of new commercial vehicles, such as hydrogen fuel cells and pure electric buses and heavy trucks, to the global market. in 2028, it became the first automaker in the world to have hydrogen fuel cell systems in all its commercial models. At the same time, by 2030, Hyundai Motor Group will make the price of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles comparable to those of pure electric vehicles to ensure its competitiveness in the consumer market.
The policy continues to increase, and the trillion hydrogen energy industry chain can be expected.
Focusing on China, for a long time, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is far from satisfactory because of "core technology is restricted by overseas", "high cost", "imperfect supporting facilities" and other reasons. Now, driven by the "3060" double carbon goal, up to the central government and down to the local government have issued relevant policies to encourage and support the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
On October 24, the State Council issued the Action Plan for carbon Dafeng before 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan"), which clearly pointed out that we should vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually reduce the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles in the production, sales and ownership of new vehicles, promote the electrified substitution of urban public service vehicles, and promote electric, hydrogen fuel and liquefied natural gas powered heavy freight vehicles. By 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy-powered vehicles will reach about 40%, the carbon emission intensity of operating vehicles will be about 9.5% lower than that of 2020, and the comprehensive energy consumption of national railway unit turnover will be 10% lower than that of 2020. Oil consumption in land transportation is expected to peak by 2030.
Then, on November 7, the State Council issued the opinions on deepening the War of Prevention and Control of pollution (hereinafter referred to as "opinions"). The opinion points out that we will continue to do a good job in the battle to control the pollution of diesel trucks. We will thoroughly implement the clean diesel vehicle (engine) campaign, basically eliminate national three or lower emission standard vehicles, promote the demonstration and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and promote clean energy vehicles in an orderly manner.
Two major documents have been issued in a short time, we can see that China's determination and thinking to promote the hydrogen energy industry has become clearer and stronger. According to incomplete statistics, at the local government level, 29 provinces and municipalities in China have issued policies related to the development of hydrogen energy industry, and more than 48 cities have issued hydrogen energy policies to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry.
Liu Wei, secretary-general of the China hydrogen Energy Alliance, said that the "double carbon" strategy is an important driving force for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and the document provides important guidance for effectively and orderly promoting the high-quality development of hydrogen energy. China's hydrogen energy industry is entering a new stage of development. According to the estimation of the China hydrogen Energy Alliance, by 2030, China's hydrogen demand will reach 35 million tons, accounting for 5% of the terminal energy system; by 2050, hydrogen energy will account for at least 10% of the terminal energy system, and the hydrogen demand will be close to 60 million tons. Carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by about 700 million tons, and the annual output value of the industrial chain is about 12 trillion yuan.
The performance of the market is heating up, and the industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is speeding up.
With the popularity of the concept of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the performance of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the market is also gradually heating up. At the end of October, data released by SNE Research, a South Korean market research institute, showed that from January to August 2021, global registered sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEV) were 11200, an increase of 91.7 per cent over the same period last year.
In addition, according to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China from January to October this year completed 940 and 953 respectively, although the base is not high, but showed an increase of 45.3% and 44.8% respectively over the same period last year. Some analysts pointed out that fuel cell vehicles are still in the early stages of industrial development, and the epidemic has dealt a heavy blow to the market demand for fuel cell vehicles, which is different from the fact that pure electric vehicles have begun to be supported by the private consumer market. the main demand for fuel cell vehicles at this stage still comes from enterprises.
As of October this year, the number of fuel cell vehicles in China was 8305. However, there is still a big gap between this figure and the goal of achieving 50, 000 to 100000 vehicles by 2025 and 1 million by 2030. In this regard, Yi Baolian, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, pointed out that if fuel cell vehicles want to be industrialized, they must greatly reduce the cost of fuel cell engines and hydrogen, as well as the construction cost of hydrogen filling stations.
According to reports, at present, the price of a fuel cell vehicle is two to three times that of a fuel vehicle and 1.5 to 2 times that of a lithium-ion battery car. the main reason is that the price of the fuel cell engine is too expensive. only by realizing the industrialization and mass production of the key materials and components of the fuel cell, and at the same time increasing the specific power of the stack, the cost of the fuel cell engine can be greatly reduced, and then the cost of the fuel cell vehicle can be reduced. In addition, the construction cost of the hydrogenation station (12 million to 15 million yuan per hydrogenation station) and the hydrogenation cost of the hydrogenation station (up to 60-80 yuan / kg) are also relatively high. Only by vigorously developing renewable energy to electrolyze water to produce green hydrogen, using natural gas or pure hydrogen pipe network to transport hydrogen, and reducing the hydrogenation cost to less than 30 yuan per kilogram, can the operating cost of fuel cell vehicles compete with fuel vehicles.
In order to solve the above problems, in September last year, five ministries and commissions jointly issued the Circular on the demonstration and Application of fuel Cell vehicles, proposing that the demonstration and application of fuel cell vehicles will be carried out in China. By adopting the method of "substituting awards for compensation," the qualified urban agglomeration will be rewarded for tackling key problems and demonstrating applications of key technologies of fuel cell vehicles. A new development model of fuel cell vehicles with reasonable layout, different emphasis and coordinated promotion has been formed.
After nearly a year of examination and screening, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, Shanghai urban agglomeration and Guangdong urban agglomeration were selected and became the first batch of urban agglomerations to carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles in China. From the list of enterprises participating in the demonstration application of the three major urban agglomerations, most of them are related to the core components of fuel cells, such as stack, membrane electrode, bipolar plate, proton exchange membrane, catalyst, carbon paper, air compressor, hydrogen cycle system and so on. On the whole, driven by the dual-carbon goal of the "3060-year Plan", driven by the continuous increase of the policy and the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles, the road to the industrialization of fuel cell vehicles is coming at an accelerated pace.
