New Power sales data released in October, Xiaopeng continued to exceed 10,000 vehicles: 1) October Xiaopeng car sales rose 187% year-on-year / month-on-month slightly decreased 0.3% to 10138 vehicles; of which, P7 year-on-year growth of 187% / month-on-month decline of 20% to 6044 vehicles (accounting for about 60%), G3/G3i compared with the same month growth of 291% to 3657 vehicles (accounting for about 36%) to a record monthly delivery, P5 sales of 437 vehicles (accounting for about 4%). 2) ideal car sales in October increased by 107% compared with the previous month, to 7649 units, and ushered in the 100th ONE off the line. 3) the sales of Qilai cars in October decreased by 27% compared with the previous month to 3667; of which, the ES6 decreased by 6% compared with the previous month to 2528 (accounting for about 69%), the ES8 decreased by 85% compared with the previous month to 218 (accounting for about 6%), and EC6 increased by 4% year-on-year. 73% to 921 (accounting for about 25%).
Affected by factory upgrade, ideal / Xiaopeng hedged chip shortage through rights and interests: 1) the sharp drop in delivery volume from October to October is mainly due to factory upgrading (for production expansion, as well as the introduction of follow-up ET7 and other new models), resulting in the suspension of production of the 10Uniq1-10Universe 15 production line, the formal resumption of production and the introduction of a compensation points program, as well as a limited time discount car purchase in November. 2) at present, both ideal One and Xiaopeng P7/P5 are affected by the shortage of millimeter wave radar chips, so they all offer the scheme of delivering 3 radar models first and then installing 2 radars. Among them, Xiaopeng gives away free software packages and ideally gives away points for additional compensation.
If the industry maintains a high boom, it is still expected to achieve steady climbing: we judge that, 1) the current new energy vehicles are still in a high demeanor, and the delivery period of new power is about 5-8 weeks; among them, Lulai 8 weeks, ideal 6-7 weeks, Xiaopeng 5-8 weeks. 2) it is expected that with the resumption of the production line, the delivery volume in November will still achieve rapid climbing. 3) the expected shortage of ideal / Xiaopeng chips is mainly due to the shortage of Bosch fifth generation millimeter wave radar chips caused by the epidemic in Malaysia (among them, the main shortage is angular millimeter wave radar used in L2 + class driving assistance system vs. The number of millimeter wave radars with the ideal One revamped has increased from 1 to 5); it is expected that with the early delivery of compensation such as rights and interests, gradual relief of chip shortages, and channel expansion, the new power's robust sales climbing prospect is still promising.
Based on the new power of 4Q21E, the climbing degree of sales is ranked as Xiaopeng, Weilai, and ideal respectively.
Sales volume is the core, and strategy / concept / talent / organizational structure is the decisive factor: Tesla leads the global trend of intelligent electrification, new forces are expanding the scope of user positioning, and traditional car companies are still in the early stages of the establishment of high-end intelligent electric vehicle brands. We judge that intelligent electrification is a long-term process, and strategy / concept, talent, and organizational structure are the decisive factors leading to the difference in technology-driven product power / sales scale. We continue to be optimistic about the prospect of steadily rising penetration of domestic new energy vehicles; for traditional car companies, recommend Geely Motor and Great Wall Motor, and recommend BYD; for Tesla and new forces, recommend Tesla, and suggest long-term attention to ideals.
Risk analysis: chip shortage is less than expected; raw material prices are rising; industry demand is lower than expected; new model launch is not as expected; replacement / new model sales and gross profit margin are not as expected; cost control is not as expected; epidemic situation is repeated; market / financial risk.
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