Global capacitor production capacity is limited, international front-line manufacturers have long announced price increases, but domestic manufacturers did not immediately follow the rise. With the increase in electricity prices, since August, the major manufacturers of aluminum capacitors have begun the first round of small price increases. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from the relevant major manufacturers that a new round of price increases have been launched after the National Day, with an increase in the range of 10% to 20%.
Capacitor is one of the three basic components (capacitor, resistor, inductor) in the field of electronic information, which is widely used downstream. Some upstream electrode foil manufacturers said that after the price increase, the products are still in short supply; while the domestic head capacitor manufacturers said that the current full production is full of sales, and the average order delivery cycle is about 4 months, which is significantly longer than the normal delivery period in the past. the business cycle of the whole industry is expected to remain at least until the first quarter of next year.
From the cost point of view, aluminum prices, electricity prices are on the way this year, if the first wave of small price increases or "test" downstream customer reaction, now the second wave of price increases is imperative. Brokerage institutions believe that the impact of price adjustment on performance has a lag, Q4 will be reflected. Industry insiders pointed out that in the long run, aluminum capacitor business will benefit from global capacity transfer, domestic alternative acceleration and the launch of high-end products, and the future expansion of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic will drive the demand for electrode foil and capacitors.
Raise the price of products across the line to hedge against cost pressure
Aluminum capacitors account for more than 30% of capacitors. The main raw materials include electrode foil, aluminum shell, lead wire, electrolytic paper, rubber plug and so on. Among them, electrode foil is the key raw material of aluminum electrolytic capacitor, accounting for about 30% of the cost, 60% of the cost, and the main cost of forming foil is electricity, accounting for about 60-70% of the cost.
Domestic raw material aluminum prices continue to rise, the main contract rose from 15000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 24000 yuan / ton, electricity price increases to promote the second round of price increases for aluminum capacitor manufacturers, rising in the range of 10% MUE 20%. Jianghai aluminum capacitor revenue accounts for 81%, its insiders told reporters that due to the increase in the price of upstream materials, the price of the company's products increased by 5% for the first time, and the second round of price increase began after the National Day by about 10%. The average price increase of aluminum electrolytic capacitors this year is 14-15%. As to whether the cost pressure can be fully covered after this price increase, the industry insiders said, "you still have to bear part of it yourself. If costs continue to rise, price increases will still be considered in the future."
A source from the peer company Aihua Group said, "starting from mid-October, the price of all products will be increased by 15% and 20%." Due to the rapid rise in the price of raw materials, coupled with the shortage of supply, it was brought up at one time. The company has reported price increases in the past two months, but only for some products.
Chemical foil is the core raw material of aluminum electrolytic capacitors. It is understood that the self-supply rate of high-voltage foil formed by Jianghai shares is about 75%, and the self-supply rate of Ai Hua Group is maintained at more than 70%. With the release of production capacity, a certain proportion still needs to be purchased. A person in charge of a local capacitor manufacturer said, "it's good to be able to get the goods at present."
In fact, the main manufacturers of chemical foil had price increases earlier, and Dongyang staff confirmed to reporters that the company had a price increase in August. According to Societe Generale Securities Analysis data, the price of the electrode foil industry increased by about 5-7% in the first half of the year, continued to increase by about 4% in July, and in August, Dongguang announced another price increase of about 12%.
In the second round of price increases, capacitor maker Jianghai (002484.SZ) has taken the lead in setting a new high for the year, up about 23% since October, while 603989.SH is up about 12% over the same period. Electrode foil manufacturers East Sunshine (600673.SH), starfish shares (603115.SH), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888.SH), Huafeng shares (002806.SZ) also rebounded steadily. The reporter noted that product prices have increased, Ai Hua Group has a buyback action a few days ago, Jianghai shares, Huafeng shares have disclosed the pre-disclosure announcement of the reduction of holdings.
The downstream demand is strong, and the delivery cycle is longer.
Will the downstream demand be affected after the price increase? From the feedback of the relevant companies, the company is not short of orders at this stage. At present, the demand of downstream merchants is good, and it is acceptable for customers to raise prices appropriately. The price adjustment will not be reflected immediately, there will be a cycle time reflection. It is understood that Jianghai shares used to have a normal delivery cycle of 2-3 weeks, but now it takes 3-4 months, and priority will be given to users who are willing to accept price increases. At present, the prosperity of the whole industry is still relatively prosperous, and there is no problem to maintain the business cycle at least until the first quarter of next year.
People related to Aihua Group said that with the adjustment of product structure, the gap between domestic capacitors and imported capacitors has narrowed. Due to the continuous repetition of the overseas epidemic situation, some manufacturers have problems in the supply chain and then transfer orders to the domestic situation, and under the influence of the continuous improvement of the prosperity of the industry, downstream customer orders have increased rapidly, and the scheduling cycle has been more than 4 months. individual subdivided products even reach 6 months.
With all the glory, the electrode foil is in short supply at the present stage. East Sunshine said that the current market demand is relatively strong, the company is in a state of full production. The reporter noted that Huafeng shares have issued a three-quarter report notice that affected by market demand, electrode foil products are in short supply, sales revenue has increased by about 50% over the same period last year, and the sales unit price has also risen greatly. The sales revenue of the subsidiary's new energy vehicle business increased by about 60% over the same period last year; Xinjiang Zhonghe forecast that the deduction of non-net profit in the first three quarters would more than double that of the same period last year.
It is worth mentioning that the above capacitor manufacturers all mentioned that new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other fields drive new demand. Ai Hua Group said that it has begun to supply the head companies of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry chains in batches, and the products are mainly used in new energy vehicles OBC, main drive electric control systems and traditional vehicle electronic control systems. Inverter is an important component of photovoltaic, which will use a lot of capacitors. The future development of the company will focus on layout in this direction.
According to the 14th five-year Development Plan of China's electronic components industry, the sales volume of China's capacitor industry will reach 143.9 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 6% during the 14th five-year Plan period. Industry insiders pointed out that at present, China's high-end capacitors and some raw materials still need to be imported in large quantities, and the process of localization is imminent. with the continuous development of production technology of domestic manufacturers, accelerating the process of domestic substitution is the logic of long-term development.
