Electric cars could halve global refining demand by 2050

The global road transport electrification campaign to reduce carbon emissions is likely to halve global demand for oil refining capacity by 2050, according to foreign media reports.

"We are likely to be around 90 per cent electrified in 2050," said Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president and head of the downstream division at Rystad Energy. He also said that this situation is likely to lead to a 50% reduction in global refining capacity. Sahdev believes that electric vehicles will reduce gasoline and diesel consumption worldwide, but demand for refined oil in the aviation, marine and petrochemical sectors is likely to remain high due to the urbanization process.

He added: "how can we meet these needs with a 50% drop in refining capacity? I think this is a clear signal that many areas with high demand may face a shortage of refined oil products. This will lead to significant changes in assets downstream of the entire supply chain. " For example, coking equipment, the upgraded unit used to produce gasoline and diesel, will have to adjust production to produce more petroleum coke used in battery graphite. He said that the direct processing of crude oil into petrochemical products will be another trend in the future.

But in the short term, global demand for oil is still likely to rise. The consultancy expects pent-up oil demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to boost global crude oil processing to 80.1 million barrels a day in the second half of 2021 as refineries maximize gasoline production.