Soochow Securities released a research report saying that 603659.SH diaphragm and equipment capacity expansion, the comprehensive construction of lithium materials and equipment platform. Increase the company's 21-23 return net profit to 16.6 PE 25.8 / 3.61 billion yuan (originally expected 10.6 pound 14.7 / 1.98 billion yuan), respectively, compared with the same period last year. 149% picks 55% picks 40% EPS 2.4 picks 3.2 yuan per share; corresponding to the current price of 3.61 billion times, respectively, given 22 years 55x, corresponding to the target price of 204.1 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The main points of Soochow Securities are as follows:
Event: the company plans to invest in the construction of Guangdong Zhaoqing production base, investment in the construction of diaphragm coated 4 billion square meters production capacity and lithium power automation equipment project, the total investment of the project is about 5.2 billion yuan, the first phase of 2 billion tons of production capacity and lithium power automation equipment project, the bank is expected to be completed and put into production in 2023, the second phase of 2 billion tons capacity is expected to be completed and put into production in 2026.
The company has accelerated the progress of production expansion, supporting large customers nearby, and the certainty of future orders is strong. According to the company's production expansion, it is estimated that it can be matched with 200gwh battery demand, and the bank expects the company to maintain its position as the main supplier of coating in the Ningde era, and the certainty of future orders is strong. Previously, the company planned 2 billion square base coating integrated production capacity, completed the third phase of production capacity construction in 2025, 26-year planning 9 billion flat coating film production capacity, 2.05 billion flat base film production capacity. At the end of 20 years, the company's production capacity of coated film is 1.5 billion square meters, and that of base film is 0.9-100 million square meters. The bank expects shipments to reach 1.5 billion square meters in 21 years, and more than 3 billion square meters in 22 years, doubling for two consecutive years.
With the layout of the equipment business, the profit of the equipment business is obviously improving. The company plans to invest 1.4 billion yuan in lithium power automation equipment production capacity, and the bank is expected to be completed and put into production in 2023. At present, the company's equipment business is progressing smoothly, completing product certification and forming order supply, and entering the supply system of Ningde era, ATL, BYD, LG New Energy, etc., the bank expects to resume high growth in 21 years.
Graphitization production capacity is tight, processing fees rise, negative integration leader full benefits. The negative graphitization capacity is about 700000 tons in 2020, and the bank expects to add about 250000 tons in 2021 and a total of about 300000 tons in 2022. The new production capacity of graphitization processing in 21 years is limited, and the processing fee has increased by 20-40% from the bottom 14000 / ton, and part of the cost has been transferred to the negative price. The company has a graphitization capacity of 70,000 to 80,000 tons, and 50, 000 tons of graphitization capacity is under construction in Inner Mongolia, which will be put into production in the second half of the year. The graphitization capacity will reach 120000 tons at the end of the year, reaching 80% of the supporting capacity.
The integrated layout thickens profits and increases the volume of negative business. The company's Q1 negative profit per ton in 21 years is about 9000 yuan / ton (excluding graphitization), a slight increase compared with the previous year. In terms of shipments, the company is deeply bound to LG,. In addition, Samsung Power and Ningde Times have begun to sell, and are expected to sell nearly 10, 000 tons respectively for the whole year. The bank expects the company's negative electrode sales to reach about 100000 tons in 21 years, an increase of nearly 60% over the same period last year. The company's Jiangxi 60, 000-ton integration project was put into production at the end of the year, with a production capacity of 150000 tons by the end of the year. In addition, 200000 tons of integrated capacity is under construction in Sichuan, and the first phase of 50, 000 tons will be put into production in the second half of next year.
Risk hint: sales fall short of expectations and profitability falls short of expectations.
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