Titanium dioxide companies report results or divide "gold, nine and silver ten" prices will be under pressure before and after the peak season

Less than half a month before the end of the first half of this year, the two leading dragons in the titanium dioxide industry, 002601.SZ and 002145.SZ, have successively released interim performance forecasts, with net profits rising by more than 80 per cent. However, the high performance growth did not drive its own stock price, and the stock price of the whole titanium dioxide sector has been depressed for nearly a week.

It is worth noting that there is a possibility of differentiation in the reporting performance of titanium dioxide plate companies. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press combed the titanium dioxide plate companies and found that there are certain differences in the production scale and income share of titanium dioxide among different companies, so the performance flexibility brought about by the increase in titanium dioxide prices in the first half of the year may be different. As for the market in the second half of the year, some analysts believe that before and after the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season, titanium dioxide prices have varying degrees of downward pressure.

In the first half of the year, there may be differences in the reporting results of each company.

Among the listed companies of titanium dioxide, Dragon Python and medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide rank in the top two with an annual production capacity of 1.01 million tons and 400000 tons respectively. On June 14 and 21, Dragon Python and medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide successively disclosed interim performance forecasts. The net profit of Dragon Python Bai Li returned to its mother was 2.327 billion yuan to 2.974 billion yuan, an increase of 80% to 130% over the same period last year. The net profit of titanium white in China Nuclear Power was 613 million yuan to 735 million yuan, an increase of 150% to 200% over the same period last year. The net profit of both companies from January to June this year exceeded the level for the whole of last year.

Behind the high growth in the performance of the two leading companies, the titanium dioxide industry has achieved a simultaneous rise in volume and price. According to statistics, the domestic output of titanium dioxide in the first five months of this year was 1.5495 million tons, an increase of 25% over the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, the price of rutile titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid process has risen nearly 26%, stabilizing at 20525 yuan / ton since the beginning of June. As of June 18, the market closed. In the first half of the year, the average daily production cost of rutile titanium dioxide by sulphuric acid process was 15087 yuan / ton, with a profit of 3504 yuan / ton. The two indicators increased by 26% and 52% respectively over the same period last year.

Titanium dioxide analyst Tian Xiaoyu said that at present, the possibility of large fluctuations in titanium dioxide prices in the rest of the first half of the year is relatively small. At this stage, when the market is stable, the weakening demand makes the prices lose the support given by the relationship between supply and demand. However, while the cost side is still strong, prices can maintain stability.

Some market participants believe that from the enterprise dimension, the titanium dioxide industry has the taste of being strong and strong in the first half of the year. The larger the titanium dioxide production scale and the higher the proportion of income, the better the reporting performance.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press combed the 2020 annual reports of various companies and found that in addition to Dragon Python Baili and medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide, titanium dioxide income of Jinpu Titanium Industry (000545.SZ), Anada (002136.SZ) and Huiyun Titanium Industry (300891.SZ) accounted for more than 80%. Although Panzhihua Vanadium Titanium (000629.SZ) and Lubei Chemical Industry (600727.SH) had scale advantages, they accounted for less than 50% of the income. Tianyuan shares (002386.SZ), Zhenhua shares (603067.SH), Kun Cai Technology (603826.SH) titanium dioxide production scale, income accounted for the bottom.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press called Panzhihua Vanadium and Titanium, Zhenhua shares and Kuncai Technology Securities Department in the name of investors. Vanadium and titanium dioxide of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. said that the company's main vanadium products and titanium dioxide rose in the first half of the year, but the titanium dioxide market was better than vanadium products. Zhenhua shares and Kuncai Technology all said that titanium dioxide accounted for a relatively small share of revenue and was expected to have a limited impact on the first half of the year.

Second half of the year: prices are under pressure before and after the peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten"

Although the volume and price of the titanium dioxide industry rose in the first half of the year, the price market may cool down in the second half of the year. A reporter from the Financial Associated Press once married "the price increase of titanium dioxide leading products for the stock prices of second-tier enterprises"? The two negative signs may indicate in the "latent" road that the domestic titanium dioxide market is increasing in export, and changes in exports will greatly affect expectations, and the export situation of titanium dioxide in May is worthy of attention.

According to customs data, in May, China's export volume of titanium dioxide was 104800 tons, an increase of-2.19% and 57.74% respectively over the same period last year. The average export price was US $2821.44 per ton, up 4.62% from the previous month and 38.92% from the same period last year. In May, China imported 15800 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of-15.84% and 12.62% respectively over the same period last year. The average import price was 2995.91 US dollars per ton, 1.35% higher than the previous month and 6.33% higher than the same period last year.

Tian Xiaoyu believes that the export volume in May is still optimistic, and the average export price is in line with the pace of price adjustment in domestic production this year, but the import volume decreased month-on-month in May, indicating that the domestic downstream industry is about to enter the off-season, and demand is naturally reducing. the import price did not stand above 3000 US dollars per ton is lower than expected, which also has the impact of shipping.

"Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is the peak season of traditional consumption in the second half of the year. "production will not miss the peak season price increase, but the increase is not large." Tian Xiaoyu stressed that at present, the performance-to-price ratio of Chinese titanium dioxide in the international market has weakened, and the high price has also caused a run on external demand. Even if all Q3 foreign manufacturers have announced increases, it is difficult for China's titanium dioxide performance-to-price ratio advantage to return to the best level. What's more, the spot supply of large foreign companies continues to be loose, and if there is no sharp reduction in July and August, there may be an actual increase of 1000-1500 yuan per ton in the peak season in September and October.

In Tian Xiaoyu's view, before the peak season, demand, including external demand, weakens, and the result of the game between supply and demand will tend to the downward price of titanium dioxide, but the cost will be supported by titanium concentrate; after the peak season, the market will face the risk of weakening supply and demand, Q4 prices in the middle and later period of downward pressure, if titanium dioxide falls more than ilmenite, industry profits will be reduced.

Long Python Bai Li, in the nuclear titanium dioxide performance forecast did not set off too big waves in the A-share market.

According to the FAP titanium dioxide plate, as of June 21, the titanium dioxide plate was up 0.13%, up-5.45% in the past week. Among the above 10 titanium dioxide companies, only the shares of medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide, Jinpu Titanium Industry, Lubei Chemical Industry, Huiyun Titanium Industry and Kuncai Technology rose slightly, but the increase was only about 1%.