Titanium dioxide leading product price increase for the second-tier enterprise stock price "do wedding clothes"? Two negative signs may be on the "lurking" road.

Leading titanium dioxide company 002601.SZ just announced its sixth price increase this year. On June 9, A-share titanium dioxide rose 4.48%, led by second-tier titanium dioxide companies such as 000545.SZ, 002136.SZ, and titanium concentrate company 002978.SZ. Longyanbai, as the main body of the promotion, rose only 0.39% on the day.

It is worth noting that the implementation time of the price adjustment, the rate of increase is slightly different from that before, as of the press release, other listed companies of titanium dioxide have not followed up the price increase for the time being. Some analysts pointed out that the implementation time of this price adjustment has been postponed to July, slightly lower than expected, and the price trend of titanium dioxide in the second half of the year is likely to cool down. since mid-late May, the price of titanium dioxide is too high and overseas demand weakens, which is a potential negative for the titanium dioxide industry.

Cost and demand boost the price adjustment of leading enterprises

Since January this year, Dragon Python has maintained the pace of issuing a monthly price increase announcement. Longyanbai price increase announcement this month shows that in view of market demand, raw material prices and other factors, since July 1, the company's various models of titanium dioxide prices for various types of customers downstream increased by 500 yuan / ton.

Compared with the first five price increases this year, the implementation time of this price adjustment is not from now on. The price adjustment units are all priced in RMB, and there is no special announcement of the US dollar price adjustment for international customers. The rate of price adjustment is lower than that from February to May this year (an increase of 1000 yuan / ton), and is the same as that in January.

Why is the implementation of this price adjustment postponed to July? Does the price adjustment in RMB include international customers? According to industry insiders close to Dragon Python, this price adjustment is carried out in accordance with the usual practice, and it is basically the same before, adopting the same price adjustment policy for international customers.

The relevant person in charge of Anada said that the company has no idea to follow the rise for the time being and will maintain its attention to the market. From the cost side, the price of titanium concentrate has risen slightly recently, and the price of sulfuric acid is stable at a high level. From the demand side, the company is full of orders. Downstream goods are unobstructed, production is carried out as planned, and now orders must wait.

Titanium dioxide analyst Tian Xiaoyu believes that the announcement of titanium dioxide leading enterprises provides a partial guidance for the domestic market in June, and the production link can further implement the new prices after the announcement in May through the window period. In this process, domestic transaction prices may show a stable and small upward trend. It should be noted that the upper limit is the new price after the announcement in May.

Tian Xiaoyu said that the current inventory level of titanium dioxide manufacturers is very low, and the orders on hand in 1-2 months also support that the supply side will not immediately become loose, which means that there is still a possibility of increase in the production link. the follow-up market will continue to run steadily with the game between buyers and sellers, rather than turning to open downside space, at present, the seller may still have a dominant say in the process of the game.

The price of titanium dioxide may cool down in the second half of the year.

In the context of continued price increases, although the recent downstream demand is normal, the sustainability of demand remains to be further observed.

The person in charge of Anada is relatively conservative. In his view, the price increase of leading enterprises may play a leading role in the market, but the acceptance of titanium dioxide price downstream in the future will bring uncertain factors to the market, and the later demand performance determines whether the price increase of titanium dioxide can be sustained.

Tian Xiaoyu said that the continuous rise in the price of titanium dioxide has already caused cost pressure on downstream production enterprises, especially small and medium-sized downstream enterprises, the cost pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for the price increase to be completely transferred to the end consumer link in the past period of time. Titanium dioxide downstream performance as a whole is more difficult.

Some market participants believe that there are two major signs that may become potential short spots in the later stage: first, although Dragon Python and Bai Li took the lead in announcing a rise in June, the rate of increase and the time of price increase were slightly lower than previously expected in the market; second, foreign orders have decreased due to high prices, and since mid-May, foreign orders from some titanium dioxide manufacturers have begun to shrink.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press inquired about customs data and learned that from January to April this year, the export volume of titanium dioxide was 106700 tons, 94400 tons, 126900 tons and 107200 tons respectively, and the export amount (RMB) was 1.535 billion yuan, 1.446 billion yuan, 2.063 billion yuan and 1.873 billion yuan.

According to the market personage, the domestic titanium dioxide export volume accounts for about 1x3 of the total output, the titanium dioxide market increment is in the export, the export change will affect the expectation to a greater extent, the titanium dioxide export situation in May is expected to be announced around the 20th of this month, it is worth paying attention to at that time.

Tian Xiaoyu believes that the price trend of titanium dioxide in the second half of the year will probably be cooler than that in the first half of the year. In July and August, the industry will meet the traditional off-season of downstream industries such as paints. Demand for titanium dioxide will weaken under high prices, and titanium dioxide prices will not show a strong upward force. With the arrival of the peak consumption season of Jinjiu Silver Ten, prices may show a slight upward trend on the current basis. However, after the peak season, With the weakening of demand and the continuous release of new capacity, the market may face the pressure of continuous easing on the supply side, and prices are naturally at risk of decline.