SMM6 March 3: general decline in non-ferrous metals during the day, demand overcast, Shanghai copper continued to callback, Shanghai nickel dived in the afternoon. At the close of trading, Shanghai Copper fell 1.28%, Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.37%, Shanghai Zinc fell 0.61%, Shanghai lead fell 0.71%, Shanghai Nickel rose 0.07%, Shanghai Tin fell 0.75%, and International Copper fell 1.29%.
In terms of copper, the copper in Shanghai is overcast today, the opening of the KDJ line is narrowed, and the green column of the MACD line is slightly elongated. The solid column was arranged weakly between the 5th and 10th moving average, and returned to Brin's lower track. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 29 in the United States, and observe whether copper prices can hold the support of the 10-day moving average supported by employment data.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] Shanghai Copper continued to adjust to weak consolidation between the 5th and 10th moving averages.
As of June 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 98800 tons, which is much higher than the 23200 tons in the same period last year and 3.26 times that in the same period last year. In June, as some smelters are overhauled and car transportation is limited due to the epidemic, the volume of goods arriving in June will decline. Copper prices may not reach record highs in June, and consumption is expected to pick up.
[SMM Analysis] Analysis of the reasons for the high inventory of electrolytic copper in Guangdong in the first half of 2021
In terms of lead, after the continuous decline of lead in Shanghai this week, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises in bargain hunting has improved slightly, but the overall consumption situation has not improved significantly. The current price spread is still large, and the holder maintains a high intention to deliver the position. It is expected that the lead ingot is still under pressure this week, and the first-line support of 15300 yuan / ton still needs to be paid attention to at night.
[brief Review of lead in SMM period] Shanghai lead continues to be weak and oscillates, paying attention to 15300 yuan / ton first-line support at night.
For the black system, the thread rose 1.72%, the iron ore rose 1.88%, and the hot coil rose 2.06%. Judging from the logic of rebar supply and demand, the standing Committee of the State Council has held successive meetings to prevent and control commodity prices from rising too rapidly. Under the background of policy focus on price protection and stable supply, the probability of formal landing of the production reduction policy in the short term is small, but the news related to the Cardafeng meeting will be frequent. Recently, with the gradual stabilization and rebound of steel prices on the supply side, steel enterprises with long and short processes still maintain a certain profit margin, and June belongs to the traditional peak production season of steel enterprises, so the overall output in June is more likely to maintain a high level of operation, with a month-on-month increase or a small increase compared with May.
Crude oil rose 1.66% in the previous period. Oil prices rose for the third day in a row on Thursday as fuel demand is expected to surge later this year, particularly in the United States, Europe and China, while major oil producers are maintaining supply discipline. Brent crude futures rose 37 cents, or 0.52 percent, to $71.72 a barrel, earlier hitting the highest level since September 2019. The consensus among market forecasters, including OPEC and its ally (OPEC), is that oil demand will outstrip supply in the second half of 2021, fuelling recent price increases. The supply and demand pattern is loose in stages, and the steel price may fluctuate the width.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 1.45% and Shanghai silver fell 0.93%. Precious metals closed lower as the US economy continued to recover and Fed officials mentioned again that the QE, dollar was stabilizing and gold and silver were under pressure. The current market focus is on the May non-farm report of the United States, which is released on Friday. If the US May non-farm report released on Friday is optimistic, it is expected to continue to boost the dollar, possibly further limiting the rise of gold and silver.
Close during the day
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[stock market close] the three major indexes fell back in the afternoon. Coal and rare earth permanent magnets are popular.
The size index rose and fell back in the afternoon, nearly 80 stocks rose more than 9%, funds returned to lithium electricity stocks, many stocks rose by the daily limit, the clothing and home textile sector continued to be strong, the liquor plate fell after reaching a record high, and Shanghai local stocks set off a rising limit of nearly 20 shares. In addition, the digital currency, 5G, rare earth permanent magnet, natural gas plate repeatedly pulled up, brokerage, medical and beauty concept, Hongmeng concept stocks and so on weakened. On the market, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, liquor concept, ice and snow industry were among the top gainers, while HIT batteries, Hongmeng concept and Huawei Automobile were among the top declines. As of the close, the Prev index fell 0.31% to close at 3585 points; the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.61% to close at 14761 points; and the gem index fell 1.27% to close at 3201 points. Northbound funds bought 1.521 billion yuan net throughout the day, of which Shanghai shares sold 26.7 million yuan and Shenzhen stocks bought 1.548 billion yuan.
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