High Nickel Ternary is gradually "tearing apart" the cost "moat" of Lithium Iron Phosphate

With the advantage of price, lithium iron phosphate has been launching a counterattack against Sanyuan in the past year or two. Star electric models such as Tesla model3, BYD Han EV, Xiaopeng P7, Wuling Hongguang mini and Great Wall Euler are all equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, under the fierce technical attack of high nickel, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate may gradually lose momentum in the future.

Once the cost of the "moat" is torn open, lithium iron phosphate will be ternary "KO" again, which will be a high probability event.

The ternary cost of high nickel will be lower than that of iron lithium.

At present, the market price of lithium iron phosphate battery is lower than 700yuan / kWh, which is more cost-effective than ternary battery, which is also the main starting point for many best-selling models to choose lithium iron phosphate battery. However, in the long run, many people in the industry believe that through the further improvement of energy density, high nickel ternary is expected to be close to or lower than iron lithium in terms of system-level cost.

According to Huajing industry research data, as the subsequent high-nickel process matures and technologies such as CTP begin to be commercialized, the decline curve of high-nickel ternary cost is steeper. It is expected that the ternary cost of high nickel in 2023-2024 will be lower than that of 5amp 6-series ternary, the cost in 2027-2028 will be lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery, and the final theoretical cost will be 10-15% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery.

"with the large-scale production of high-nickel materials, its manufacturing costs will be reduced, and some of the module technologies currently used in iron-lithium will eventually be used in ternary batteries, and then by 2030, with the recovery of valuable metals for ternary batteries, its life cycle cost is expected to be more competitive than iron-lithium." Industry insiders analyzed.

China International Capital Corporation predicts that by 2025, the price difference between high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate will be reduced to 650 yuan / kWh and 530 yuan / kWh, respectively, from the current nearly 30% to about 20%. At the same time, it is estimated that by 2025, the energy density of high nickel ternary and iron lithium systems in passenger vehicles will reach 220Wh/kg and 160Wh/kg. Among them, if the high nickel ternary uses CTP technology, there is room for further improvement of energy density, while the room for promotion of iron lithium is limited.

"from the perspective of car companies, we can't just look at the cost of a single kWh. And need to synthesize the cost of waiting to be loaded as a whole. " China International Capital Corporation researchers pointed out. In addition to the single kWh cost of the battery, the impact of energy density on vehicle energy consumption is also a cost factor to be considered by car companies. Therefore, on the whole, the energy consumption advantage brought by the energy density by 2025 will drive the high nickel ternary system to achieve an integrated system cost close to iron lithium and lower than iron lithium in long mileage under the condition that the price of single kWh is still higher than that of lithium iron phosphate.

The battery leader must compete for the place.

High-nickel ternary is an important technical path to drive the mileage of new energy vehicles up to more than 600km, so it is also a must for battery companies to occupy the high-end market. At present, Tesla, the largest seller in the global electric vehicle market, uses NCM811 batteries from Panasonic NCA and LG new energy, and most European first-line car companies also prefer 811 batteries; major battery factories around the world are also speeding up the development and mass production of high-nickel and low-cobalt batteries.

In mid-May, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times, said at a performance presentation that 811 batteries now account for more than 20% of the company's total power battery shipments and have achieved large-scale delivery in overseas markets. It is reported that the overseas customers who load 811 batteries mainly include Daimler, BMW and other car companies. Thus it can be seen that the research and development of 811 battery in Ningde era not only did not slack off, but accelerated.

According to the understanding of battery China, the sales volume of power battery system in Ningde era was 44.45 GWh in 2020. So, according to Zeng Yuqun's 20% ratio, Ningde era 811 battery shipments have reached 8.9 GWH; this figure has exceeded all battery shipments of most battery manufacturers in the world.

It is worth noting that LG New Energy plans to formally mass-produce the world's first ultra-high nickel NCMA battery this year, and begin to supply batteries to Tesla in the second half of the year. While the nickel content of the battery is as high as 90%, the cobalt content is reduced to 5%. The battery is expected to be used in Tesla's compact SUV model Y and so on. Tesla CEO Musk has always said that Tesla will build his own batteries and will use 100% nickel-rich batteries.

In fact, even BYD, which has been promoting blade batteries with great fanfare, has even raised suspicions that it may have given up the three-way route, actively adding high-nickel batteries. In April this year, the domestic Ford Mustang Mach-E was officially launched, using BYD's NCM811 battery. Thus it can be seen that BYD is well aware of the technological development trend of high-nickel ternary batteries in the future.

The market permeability of high nickel ternary materials is increasing.

In terms of permeability, industry data show that the domestic output of high-nickel ternary materials exceeded 9000 tons in March this year, an increase of 35.1% over the previous month. With the release of high-nickel ternary materials, the market share of domestic high-nickel ternary materials reached 33.7% in March, of which the market share of 8 series ternary materials reached 31.9%, and the market share exceeded 30% for the first time.

It is understood that Rongbai technology in the high-nickel ternary cathode materials market share has reached 50%, Dangsheng technology NCM811 and other products have long been supplied in large quantities. A number of domestic brokerage institutions believe that the proportion of high-tech high-nickel products is expected to continue to increase in 2021, while Rongbai's shipments are expected to double in the next two years.

Minsheng Securities Research News believes that the proportion of ternary high nickel in major new cars listed at home and abroad in 2021 is relatively high, including popular models such as Tesla Model Y/Cybertrunk, Volkswagen ID.4/ID.6, Nissan Ariya, etc., which is expected to lead to a further increase in the permeability of high nickel in ternary materials. The industry predicts that the permeability of high-nickel ternary materials will reach more than 60% and 70% by 2025.

In the face of the general trend of high nickel, many enterprises are stepping up their layout. Recently, Yiwei LiNeng plans to set up a high-nickel ternary cathode material joint venture with Bertre and SKI, which will build a project with an annual output of 50, 000 tons of high-nickel materials. Korea cathode Materials Co., Ltd. has signed a large order with Grammy, which plans to purchase 176000 tons of high-nickel precursors within three years. It is reported that Rongbai Technology plans to increase the production capacity of high-nickel materials to 300000 tons by 2025 and to 1 million tons by 2030.

According to the forecast of the industry, the global output of high-nickel ternary materials will exceed 600000 tons by 2022, doubling the growth rate. By 2030, the output of high-nickel materials in the whole industry will be close to 3.5 million tons.