Today, China Automotive Power Battery Industry Alliance released data on power battery production in April, showing that China's power battery production in April totaled 12.9 GWH, an increase of 173.7 percent over the same period last year and 14.6 percent month-on-month. Of these, the output of ternary batteries was 6.7GWh, an increase of 134.3 percent over the same period last year, and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 6.2GWh, an increase of 235.4 percent over the same period last year.
Multiple factors drive lithium demand for continuous improvement
Thanks to the multi-power drive of the downstream demand side, the lithium electric permeability has accelerated, and the industry continues to have a high demeanor.
First of all, under the background of "carbon neutralization in the first year" in China, policies have been introduced to guide the development of scenic energy storage, which generally requires that the installed capacity of new scenic energy storage facilities is more than 10%, and the inflection point of energy storage demand growth is rising.
Secondly, the penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerated, the trend of automobile electrification is obvious, new forces and traditional car companies accelerate the launch of new energy high-quality models, lithium battery demand ushered in rapid growth. The latest figures show that sales of new energy vehicles reached 206000 in April, up 180.3%, while Q1 sales this year were 732000, up 249.2%. At the same time, the installed capacity of batteries continues to rise. This year, the global installed capacity of Q1 batteries is about 47.7GWH, an increase of 163% over the same period last year, of which the domestic installed capacity is 23.2GWH, an increase of 308.7% over the same period last year.
In addition, in the electric two-wheeler industry, lithium batteries will quickly replace lead-acid batteries. According to open source securities statistics, Niu Dian Technology, Yadi, Emma and other electric bicycle head enterprises have realized lithium electrification of electric vehicles, and battery head manufacturers such as Ningde era, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have also joined the bureau. Lithium-ion bicycles will meet a key growth period in the next three years.
The permeability of LFP battery increases and the output increases by more than three yuan.
At present, LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) and ternary materials are the main power batteries. In 2021, the installed share of ternary lithium batteries in Q1 new energy passenger vehicles is still dominant, about 67%. However, institutions are still optimistic about the follow-up of LFP.
On the one hand, the high performance-to-price ratio of LFP is expected to accelerate the recovery of its installed capacity. CICC Securities said in a research report yesterday that due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the month-on-month decline in the prices of Q1 ternary and LFP batteries has narrowed this year. Under the double price reduction, the average price of LFP is still more than 20% lower than that of Sanyuan. With parity and security, the installed capacity of LFP is expected to continue to increase.
On the other hand, the new LFP model increases the share of LFP. Although Sanyuan is still dominant, the share of LFP installed reached an all-time high of 33% in the first quarter of this year. This is mainly due to Biya Dihan, Wuling Mini EV, Tesla Model 3 and other popular models pull, and then Xiaopeng P7, Tesla Model Y and other LFP models will be listed. Led by head car companies, the proportion of LFP is expected to continue to rise.
LFP cathode materials gradually occupy structural advantages, and many families have benefited.
According to the above research report of CICC, during the Q1 period, the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 168.7% year-on-year to 69000 tons, while LFP cathode materials increased by 313.8% year-on-year to 66000 tons. The proportion of the total output of positive electrodes in the monthly output of iron and lithium rose from 47% to 52%, surpassing ternary cathode materials for the first time.
The overall supply of the LFP market falls short of demand, and the head enterprises are generally in a state of full production and scheduling. German Nano, Hunan Yuneng, Taifeng and so on have sought to expand the production of LFP materials, while Longyanbai, medium Nuclear Titanium dioxide and other chemical enterprises have also begun to enter the Bureau. In the later stage, the gap between supply and demand is expected to be alleviated, while LFP prices may fall, further driving downstream demand. The agency expects that LFP production capacity will continue to maintain high growth in the future.
It is worth mentioning that lithium manufacturers began to cooperate with LFP cathode material factory in order to stabilize the supply of raw materials. For example, the above-mentioned German Nano and Hunan Yuneng are favored by the battery leader Ningde Times, with joint ventures to build factories and shares in the latter respectively. The industry pattern is expected to continue to move closer to the head of the enterprise.
