The semiconductor sector rose today. By midday, the semiconductor sector as a whole rose 1.44%. In terms of individual stocks, Felix rose nearly 19%, Qianzhao Optoelectronics rose nearly 9.7%, and Shilan Weiwei, Guoke Weiwei, Huafeng Measurement and Control rose more than 8%. 131 of the remaining 185 stocks are floating red.
Recently, affected by the "lack of core", Volkswagen recently issued an internal warning that its production in the second quarter will be hit harder than in the first quarter because of a global shortage of chips. "suppliers and Volkswagen have told us that we will face considerable challenges in the second quarter, and the situation may be more serious than in the first quarter." In addition, according to recent reports, after the car, the small home appliance industry cast a shadow of "lack of core". Ai Xiaoming, president of home appliance giant Whirlpool in China, said earlier this month that the global chip shortage has not only slowed down automobile production, but is now starting to affect the home appliance industry. Whirlpool received about 10% fewer chips than its orders in March.
According to Minsheng Securities Research report, the shortage of chips in the semiconductor industry is expected to last for the whole year. The epidemic disrupted the relationship between supply and demand for automotive semiconductors, resulting in a shortage of mature production capacity: the automaker 2020H1 underestimated demand for chips, and then placed orders for production when 2020H2 demand increased, thus straining the global 8-inch production line. The demand for 5G mobile phones, servers and laptops is strong: first, mobile phones benefit from the 5G replacement trend; second, AMD grabs the share of intel, which increases the demand for cloud computing under the influence of the epidemic, jointly increasing the demand for advanced processes such as TSMC; and third, home and office drive demand for laptops, Q4 shipments also increased by 35%. Under the epidemic plus domestic substitution, the domestic mature demand increases: first, the transportation under the epidemic is limited, which hinders the import of foreign IGBT and MOSFET, and the capacity load of domestic chip manufacturers such as SMIC and Huahong is obviously increased. Second, under the domestic substitution, the market share of domestic semiconductor design companies has increased, and the mature production capacity of SMIC and Huahong has been largely filled. Due to the friction between China and the United States, downstream enterprises have a large number of stocks to increase safety inventory.
In addition, on the supply side, Minsheng Securities pointed out that sudden incidents disrupt production capacity. Qiangmao, Renesas, NXP, Murata, Xinyue Chemical and other chip manufacturers and material manufacturers were suddenly affected by fire, Earthquake and snow disaster, aggravating the shortage of supply and demand for semiconductors. As a result, the utilization rate of foundry capacity remains high, and prices are raised by varying degrees in all links of the industrial chain.
Since the second half of 2020, chip prices have continued to rise. Tianfeng Securities believes that there are three main reasons: the epidemic has accelerated the process of digitization of work and life. with the emergence of new application scenarios such as 5G and new energy vehicles, the overall real demand growth in 2021 is better than the industry forecast, and the trade conflict between China and the United States has reduced the global cooperation efficiency of the industrial chain. Some enterprises panicked to issue orders and channel speculation exacerbated the degree of capacity shortage.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that returning to the origin of fundamentals, from the medium-and long-term dimension, the boundary factors for the growth of the expansion semiconductor industry still exist, and downstream applications take 5G/ new energy vehicles / cloud servers as the main line, specific to mainland China, we believe that "domestic substitution" is the current plate logic, and "growth" under "domestic substitution" is better than "cyclical" consideration.
![[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Social Inventory Saw a Slight Buildup, While High Supply Coupled with Cautious Downstream Demand Constrained Destocking](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/bFzkj20251217171724.jpg)
