SMM3 March 19: metal on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, with Lun Copper under pressure on Thursday as the dollar rose and U.S. Treasury yields soared, but supply concerns caused by a shortage of copper concentrates limited the decline. At one point in February, copper prices reached $9617 a tonne, the highest level since August 2011 and up more than 16 per cent since the start of the year. The price of copper is seen by investors as an indicator of the health of the economy. Analysts point out that over the past few weeks, copper and other base metals have struggled to find a clear direction because of macro market jitters and bond market panic. The whole LME metal market was green this morning. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper fell nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Lunzn Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Lunni fell nearly 1.3%, Lunxi fell nearly 0.7%, and Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.6%. Domestically, international copper and shanghai copper fell nearly 0.8%, shanghai aluminum fell nearly 2%, shanghai lead fell nearly 0.6%, shanghai zinc fell nearly 1.5%, shanghai nickel fell nearly 1.8%, shanghai tin rose nearly 0.5%.
Copper, on the macro side, announced at night that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly rose to 770000 last week. At the highest level in a month, investors are worried about a sustained recovery in the job market. In addition, concerns about the epidemic have reignited, some large European economies have re-imposed blockades, increasing uncertainty about the demand outlook, and oil prices have fallen for five consecutive days at night, with the biggest drop in six months at night. All three major US stock indexes closed lower, bearish sentiment affected the weakening of commodities and copper prices fell under pressure.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] during the period of negative sentiment at night, copper performed poorly and spot transactions maintained the sawing trend.
Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. In the short term, aluminum ingot consumption inventory increased by 22000 tons to 1.25 million tons compared with last Thursday, aluminum bar inventory decreased by 3900 tons to 232900 tons, aluminum bar inventory inflection point appeared, aluminum ingot inventory inflection point is approaching. Spot to the high absolute price still needs time to digest, the discount pattern may continue. In the medium term, we continue to pay attention to the mood changes of long bears, suggest that the upstream should increase shipping efforts, downstream procurement should be based on demand, and be cautious to chase high.
[minutes of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] under the influence of the jump in US bond yields, Shanghai Aluminum Corporation weakens and expects the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory to approach.
In terms of lead, overnight, the support of 1910 US dollars / ton under Lun lead was OK, and finally Lun lead stopped falling and closed at the cross star, paying attention during the day to whether Lun lead could continue its overnight rise and stand firm at the level of 1930 yuan / ton. Overnight, Shanghai lead continued to shock weak, out of the long shadow line bald column, across the technical surface of the night sky to reduce positions, KDJ upward exposure, daytime attention to whether Shanghai lead can continue to stand on the first line of 14800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of lead today is higher than that of yesterday.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight, lead rose slightly in Shanghai, closed down, and the discount on recycled lead was maintained.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small negative column, the lower Bollinger Road middle rail to provide support, the top of each short moving average to form compression, KDJ opening down expansion. Dragged down by the outer disk overnight, the operation of Shanghai Zinc is weak. The uncertainty of Sino-US relations remains, superimposed on the case that terminal consumption has not yet fully recovered, high prices of zinc ingots and steel inhibit the order increment of downstream galvanizing enterprises. In the short term, we should pay attention to the social inventory situation after the fall of zinc price.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] US Dollar and US debt strongly put pressure on Zinc prices to fall
In terms of nickel, the overall trend of horizontal volatility of Shanghai Nickel in the night market, Shanghai Nickel is still in low consolidation near 120000, nickel futures are in a low consolidation state for two consecutive weeks, and there are more short-term operations before the market releases obvious bullish expectations. for example, nickel bean inventory continues to fall, bullish confidence is insufficient, nickel futures or continue to maintain the current state, short-term operations are mainly short-term operations, most of the funds are less than 119000, more than 123000 empty operations. There is still no obvious trend in fundamentals. This week, the main contract price of Shanghai Nickel is expected to run at 118000 to 126000 yuan / ton. Renni is expected to operate at US $15700 to US $16,500 per ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel short-term operation has frequent intra-day fluctuations and fundamental weak operation has not been released for the time being.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.6%, the hot coil increased by nearly 0.3%, coking coal by nearly 1.4%, coke by nearly 0.2%, iron ore by nearly 1.2%, and stainless steel by nearly 0.4%. Generally speaking, the inflexion point of rebar reduction has arrived, and the high probability of warehouse reduction in the later stage continues to accelerate, under the circumstances that the increment at the supply side is limited and there is more room for recovery at the demand side. Later spot prices may continue to fluctuate upward. However, from the current point of view, the recovery of terminal demand has been suppressed, the current consumption level of rebar week has not yet returned to the level of the same period in previous years, rebar prices may still be short-term shock finishing, waiting for the strong return of demand.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] short-term finished product prices fluctuate mainly and may have room to rise.
Crude oil fell nearly 4.7% in the previous period, while crude oil futures tumbled 7% on Thursday, recording a fifth consecutive day of decline. Some analysts pointed out that concerns about tensions between the US and Russia and the twists and turns in the vaccination process in Europe worried the crude oil market. Analysts point out that relations between the United States and Russia are increasingly strained, and the United States has threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, and one of Russia's means of retaliation is to crack down on US shale oil producers by supplying large quantities of crude oil to the market.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.4 per cent and Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.4 per cent. Spot gold fell 1730 US dollars per ounce yesterday, down 0.85 per cent on the day. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 1.7526 per cent, the highest since January 2020, while the yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 2.518 per cent, the highest since August 2019.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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