"[overnight market] the only floating Hongmei oil in the outer plate metal Puduilun Copper rose more than 2% to recover the 42 mark.
[macro Outlook] IEA publishes monthly crude Oil Market report the United States announces the number of initial jobless claims in the week
Today's focus
[SMM brief comment: a number of financial data fell in July compared with the previous month in Shanghai.] according to SMM, after government mediation, Peruvian local community residents blocking mine transportation roads have reached an agreement with the mine authorities to lift the road blockade. Previously, Las Bambas and Antacappay mines were forced to declare force majeure due to road closure. At present, consumption in the lower reaches continues to weaken month-on-month. According to SMM research data, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 76.17% in July, down 2.49% from the previous month and an increase of 1.08% over the same period last year. "View details
[SMM analysis: the operating rate of aluminum strip enterprises began to pick up in July.] SMM recently completed a survey of aluminum plate and strip enterprises in the industry. According to statistics, the average weighted operating rate of China's aluminum strip industry in July was 68.15%, up 0.5% from the previous year, down 1.42% from last year, and is expected to be around 72% in August 2020, basically the same as this month. "View details
[SMM analysis: Shanghai lead lost Wanliu, but the peak season shows that the inventory decline still supports lead prices] in terms of fundamentals, on the one hand, as lead prices fall below Wanliu, profits of recycled lead smelters decline, and the purchase price of waste batteries is only slightly reduced, but as the supply of waste batteries is still tight, prices remain high. According to SMM research, recycled refined lead mainstream quotation to SMM1# lead average price discount 200-250 yuan / ton, recycled primary price difference narrowed, downstream demand is OK, social inventory of lead ingots is expected to decline this week. Overall, this week's social inventory of lead ingots or decline and lead battery consumption season reflects the momentum of rising lead prices, lead prices are expected to support in the short term. "View details
[SMM brief Review: nickel prices are burdened by macro fundamentals support Shanghai Nickel 110000 to stabilize and rebound] the leading factors of this round of early rally are related to the capital side, but then the fundamentals have followed up to a certain extent. The fundamentals performed better than expected in the third quarter, while the latest price fell. On the other hand, it depends on the progress of vaccine research, the better-than-expected non-farm data in the United States, and the failure to agree on the latest stimulus policy in the United States. SMM believes that the current performance of fundamentals can support the stabilization and rebound of more than 110000 of Shanghai nickel, the high output of stainless steel, domestic nickel spot due to reduced imports began to tighten, and so on, the fundamentals are temporarily stable, and there is some room for upward repair after the sharp fall. it is estimated that this week Shanghai nickel 110000-115000 yuan / ton, Lunni 14000-14400 US dollars / ton. "View details
[heavyweight: here comes the good news! Vietnam allows the import of Chinese 201 stainless steel] recently, Vietnam issued an official document allowing the import of Chinese 201 stainless steel. According to SMM, Vietnam is the main export destination of China's 200series steel, but the previous official import ban on Vietnam, the overall orders of some domestic 200series steel exporters decreased significantly, the revision of the current ban on China's export of different models of 200series stainless steel market is good, it is expected that the fourth quarter 200series export volume month-on-month or increase, the specific actual overseas procurement volume is still dominated by customs statistics. "View details
[SMM brief comment: steel mills in some parts of Russia reduced production of forged manganese inquiry and procurement] according to SMM, steel mills in some parts of Russia reduced production in the third quarter. From China's raw material exports, it is obvious that Russia's total imports of forged manganese in July decreased by 49.06% month-on-month in the second quarter of 2020, while unforged manganese was unforged. The total import volume of scrap and powder decreased by 26.15% in July compared with the previous month. In addition, in August, some exporters said that Russia's inquiry orders and the overall purchase volume showed a downward trend, but the actual import volume was still based on customs data. "View details
[SMM analysis: returning to demand for new production capacity of steel mills supports Si-mn to continue to rebound] the epidemic in China caused the price of Si-mn 6517 to drop sharply after the Spring Festival in 2020, with the lowest price of 5750 yuan / ton in the north and 6050 yuan / ton in the south, the lowest price in nearly three years, but also because of the global epidemic, silicon and manganese prices rebounded sharply after the blockade of manganese ore exports in South Africa on March 21, with the highest transaction price of 7150 yuan per ton in the north. The highest transaction price in the south is 7200 yuan per ton. Whether the actual supply impact or speculation in the futures market, since South Africa intends to completely liberalize its export policy on 14 May, the price of imported manganese ore has led the sentiment in the silicon-manganese market to turn cold, until the national silicon-manganese price returned to an all-time low in July, and the lowest transaction price in the north even reached 5700 yuan per ton. "View details
Gold prices have risen about 30 per cent so far this year as investors bought gold to avoid the economic downturn caused by the novel coronavirus epidemic and central banks injected large amounts of money to ease the risk of currency depreciation caused by the epidemic. Gold prices have risen almost all the way this year, but there was a wave of decline in early March because of the global liquidity crisis. Now, due to the new progress in vaccines, the demand for risk aversion has fallen, and the price of gold has once again entered a pullback period. "View details
[SMM Steel: Lecong Hot Volume inventory broadcast (August 6-August 12)] this week Lecong Hot Volume inventory 582700 tons, month-on-month-31700 tons, year-on-year-20600 tons. Lecong hot volume inventory has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, mainly due to the relatively small amount of goods arriving in the market and the relatively stable demand release. According to SMM's understanding, affected by the inappropriate price difference recently, the northern resources of the market continue to be on the low side, basically dominated by ten thousand steel and a small amount of long-term cooperation, but this part of the supply can no longer fully meet the local terminal demand, prompting it to digest the original inventory. At the same time, under the influence of persistently high prices in East China, northern resources will be more inclined to flow to East China, so it is expected that the market supply will show a steady downward trend in the short term, forming a certain support for local spot prices.
[SMM analysis: Silicon price bottomed out and rebounded in August] silicone plant monthly tender 42m silicon acceptance price is around 11800 yuan / ton, an increase of about 800yuan / ton month-on-month. On the one hand, it is an extreme case that the monthly unit price of chemical grade silicon is on the low side due to the rush of individual silicon factories to ship goods in early July, on the other hand, the monthly order lags behind the change of bulk price, so the quotation of silicon factories has increased greatly compared with the previous month. SMM expects most downstream raw material inventories to be historically low, but with most silicon factory orders flush with short-term funding, overall silicon prices will remain strong in the first half of August. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang and the resumption of production in "View details
[SMM Analysis: lithium Battery concept pull up Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Why have you stayed at the bottom for a long time without turning over? SMM believes that there is a significant divergence in the lithium carbonate market at present. The output of cathode materials continued to increase in July. Due to the rapid recovery of lithium carbonate in the downstream of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate market, some manufacturers in Qinghai and Jiangxi shipped smoothly, and the price was firm and slightly increased. The lithium carbonate used in the purification processing market is more sensitive to the price of raw materials. When the price difference between industrial carbon and electric carbon is reduced to less than the processing fee, the purification demand is reduced, and it is difficult to raise the price of lithium salt. Battery-grade lithium carbonate due to its own inventory pressure is still in, downstream demand recovery is slow, smelters are facing inventory pressure, downstream acceptance of price increases is low. In the short term, ternary demand has recovered, and some enterprises have reported that shipments have picked up, but terminal car companies have a strong bargain, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is still relatively stable. "View details
[SMM analysis: cobalt price short-term shock stable at the end of the third quarter or a slight rise] this week entered the late stage of the game, upstream suppliers increased willingness to ship, downstream demand due to reduced inventory tension, high prices and futures affected market sentiment, purchase intention weakened, market turnover is light. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current cobalt salt and cobalt tetroxide fundamentals are still good, the upstream smelter cobalt raw material inventory, cobalt salt inventory, cobalt tetroxide inventory are all at the lowest level so far this year, and the downstream demand margin is good in the second half of the year. regardless of the influence of late force majeure and other factors, cobalt price shocks are expected to remain stable in the short term, and in the long run, there may be a slight rise at the end of the third quarter, but the rising space is limited. "View details
[SMM analysis: SS2008 contract delivery volume occupies a high late price still has a trend to push up] this week, the spot price of stainless steel gradually disappeared, under the influence of the sharp decline in gold, silver, precious metals and nickel prices, the main stainless steel contract gradually fell back to the 14000 yuan / ton mark, with a pullback of more than 500 yuan / ton. Spot market prices are relatively strong, although the recent market transactions are weak, but traders said that the current volume is not much, not mainly to reduce the price, while downstream merchants think that the current price is on the high side. Castle Peak Steel Plant is cautious in taking goods and has not yet opened a new offer price, which is highly uncertain and generally holds a wait-and-see attitude. "View details
Important news of metals and industry
[Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group plan to build a copper concentrate mixing plant in Guangxi] according to two people familiar with the matter, state-owned metal producers China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group plan to build a copper concentrate mixing plant in Guangxi. The plant will be located in the port city of Fangchenggang, where Jinchuan already owns a copper smelter with an annual capacity of 400000 tonnes, in which trader Trafigura has a 30 per cent stake. The source added that Trafigura (Trafigura) was not involved in the smelter's plan, but Guangxi Nanguo Copper, a local smelter, was involved. "View details
Canyon Resources Company (Canyon Resources) has determined for the first time its reserves of (Minim Martap) bauxite in Minin Mattep, Cameroon. The company believes that the project can be produced for at least 20 years, and its products can be rated as one of the bauxite ores with the highest grade and the lowest impurity content in the world. In July, the company completed a pre-feasibility study with reserves of up to 97.3 million tons, alumina content of 51.1% and silicon content of 2.3%. "View details
[Xinlun Technology: the company's domestic production line of aluminum-plastic film has obtained the qualification of qualified supplier in Ningde era] Xinlun Technology said on the interactive platform that the company's domestic production line of aluminum-plastic film has obtained the qualification of qualified supplier in Ningde era at the beginning of 2020. Some models of aluminum-plastic film products have formed orders for sales.
[July SPIC Shanxi Aluminum made a profit of 30.04 million yuan] in July, Shanxi Aluminum made a profit of 30.04 million yuan, making a profit for two consecutive months. From January to July, the cumulative complete cost decreased by 290 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, and the cost achieved "seven consecutive reductions." In July, the gap between the complete cost of the low temperature line and Zhongzhou Aluminum Plant was 79 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the year, and the gap between the complete cost of the high temperature line and Huaxing Aluminum was 262 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year.
By the end of July, the company had produced a total of 25547 cathode plates, 13568 anode plates, 325.15 tons of plastic particles and 10931 pieces per set of labor protection products, with a sales income of 27.889 million yuan and a profit of 3.3041 million yuan, which laid the foundation for ensuring the realization of the production and operation target for the whole year.
First boat! Yichen's first nickel mine ship arrived at Rizhao Port, Shandong Port! It is understood that the new stainless steel material project with an annual output of 500000 tons invested by Linyi Yichen Ni-Cr Alloy Co., Ltd. adopts the most advanced and mature RKEF (rotary kiln-submerged arc furnace) process in the world, which has the characteristics of low energy consumption, low pollution, high resource recovery and high product grade. The main raw material of the project is nickel laterite, and the current annual demand is about 5 million tons. after the project is put into production, the annual demand for nickel ore will reach more than 10 million tons, which will drive more than 3000 people to be employed, with good economic and social benefits. "View details
[Shanghai Stock Exchange: the margin ratio for Ag contracts has been adjusted to 16% since the close of liquidation on August 12] the margin ratio for, Ag (contracts will be adjusted from 13% to 16% from Wednesday, August 12, 2020, and the limit for the rise and fall of the contract will be adjusted from 12% to 15% from the next trading day. With effect from the close of liquidation on Wednesday, August 12, 2020, the margin ratio for Au, mAu, Au, Au, T+N2, NYAuTN06 and NYAuTN12 contracts will be adjusted from 9% to 12%, and the limit for the rise and fall of contracts will be adjusted from 8% to 11% from the next trading day.
[rare earth high-tech zone: strive to promote rapid, stable and high quality economic development] in the first half of the year, the rare earth high-tech zone achieved a regional GDP of 18.345 billion yuan, an increase of 0.2% over the same period last year. The total industrial output value of the above-sized industrial enterprises reached 23.78 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1 percent over the same period last year, and the total profits reached 1.65 billion yuan, an increase of 40.4 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative added value of the three leading industries of rare earths, aluminum and copper, and equipment manufacturing accounted for 73.9% of the total industrial added value, an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year. "View details
[Baotou City Bureau of Industry and Information Technology: the prices of rare earth products rose or remained flat compared with half of the month in July] in July, the prices of 33 kinds of industrial products mainly monitored by the Baotou City Bureau of Industry and Information Technology showed a rising trend. Judging from the month-on-month situation, the average price of 20 products increased month-on-month, accounting for 60.6% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of price-rising products decreased by 4 kinds compared with June; the average price of 9 kinds of products decreased, accounting for 27.3% of the total number of monitored products; the number of products with falling prices increased by 4 kinds compared with June; the average price of 4 kinds of products was the same as that in June, accounting for 12.1% of the total number of monitored products, and the number of products with the same price was the same as in June. "View details
[Jinli permanent Magnet plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary to develop, produce and sell magnetic materials in Baotou, Inner Mongolia] on August 10, Jiangxi Jinli permanent Magnet Technology Co., Ltd. announced that for the needs of business operation and strategic development, the company intends to use self-raised funds to invest in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous region Baotou rare Earth High-tech Zone to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary Jinli permanent Magnet (Baotou) Technology Co., Ltd. (provisional name, subject to final registration). The 23rd meeting of the second session of the board of directors was held on August 7, 2020 to deliberate and pass the bill on the establishment of subsidiaries by foreign investment. "View details
[North rare earth listing price increases by nearly 10% multi-factor superimposed support price] North China rare Earth (Group) announced the listing price of rare earth products in August, and the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium-neodymium have risen sharply. Compared with July, it increased by 36000 yuan / ton and 43000 yuan / ton respectively, a range of nearly 10%. At present, the praseodymium-neodymium market quotation is strong, the spot supply is insufficient, and the mainstream production enterprises adopt a tightening strategy for praseodymium-neodymium sales, which reduces the spot circulation in the market, resulting in a Downstream enterprises periodically replenish inventory, the demand is still there, and it is expected that the price of praseodymium and neodymium will continue to rise steadily and slightly in the short term. "View details
[a new boutique steel plant with an annual capacity of 7.6 million tons in Guangdong] A few days ago, the Natural Resources Bureau of Yuncheng District of Yunfu City announced the approval of the location of the construction land of Guangdong Southern Donghai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. The data show that the Yunfu project of Guangdong Southern Donghai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. plans to produce 7.6 million tons of high-quality steel per year, with a total investment of 12 billion yuan, with construction in two phases, with 4 million tons in the first phase and planned to be completed and put into production in June 2021, employing 2000 people; the second phase of construction is 3.6 million tons, with a planned employment of 2000 people. After all is completed, the annual output value will be 30 billion yuan, and the profit and tax will be about 2 billion yuan. "View details
[iron and steel] according to the steel mill, Shandong Taijia New material Technology Co., Ltd. 1450mm 20-high reversing cold rolling mill, the cold rolled product passed the steel at 9: 00 this morning, and the cold pickling line is also under commissioning and will be put into production in the near future.
[gold] (CME): on August 11, the precious metals market had a record daily trading volume of 1.55 million contracts.
Macro focus
Domestic:
The State Council: issued the opinions on further stabilizing Foreign Trade and stabilizing Foreign Investment, and put forward 15 policies and measures for stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment. Support the conditional place to copy or expand the financing model of "credit guarantee + guarantee". On the premise of strictly implementing the epidemic prevention requirements, we will continue to discuss with relevant countries the establishment of "express channels" to facilitate personnel exchanges, increase the total number of international passenger flights in stages, and appropriately increase the number of civil aviation flights with our main sources of investment. We will guide the gradient transfer of processing trade and cultivate a number of processing trade industrial parks jointly built in the east, the central and western regions and the northeast. We will further increase support for enterprises exporting labor-intensive products.
Yu Yongding of the Academy of Social Sciences: consumption will increase in the second two quarters of this year, especially the growth of cars will be the strongest, but the growth rate of consumption will not exceed the growth rate of GDP, and there will be no retaliatory consumption in the second half of the year. Because in the first two quarters, Chinese people mainly relied on savings to tide over the difficulties, in the current situation of income growth, ordinary people will not spend all their money, but will first supplement the savings spent in the first half of the year. Consumption will not be considered until savings levels return to pre-epidemic levels.
China Banking Association: release of China listed Bank Analysis report 2020. Listed banks will continue to deepen supply-side structural reform, constantly adjust and optimize their business structure, further attach importance to comprehensive risk management, strengthen fine capital management, and do a good job in the vanguard of "six stability" and "six guarantees". Credit is tilted to the national key strategic areas, effectively control the loan concentration of the real estate industry, and seize the market opportunities for the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.
On August 12, the five state-owned banks of China Construction and Postal savings of Industry and Peasants simultaneously issued a notice that starting from August 25, individual housing loans within the scope of batch conversion will be uniformly adjusted to LPR pricing in accordance with the relevant rules. At the same time, it is clear that after the completion of the batch conversion, if there is any objection to the conversion result, it can be returned by self-help through the relevant channels or negotiated with the loan manager before December 31, 2020.
China Foundation Association: by the end of July 2020, there were 24457 private equity fund managers, an increase of 0.16% over the previous month; the number of funds under management was 88051, an increase of 2.27% over the previous month; and the size of the fund under management was 14.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.24% over the previous month. There were 88051 existing private equity funds, the size of which was 14.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.24 percent over the previous month, of which 46973 were surviving private equity investment funds, with a survival scale of 3.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.65 percent over the previous month.
Abroad:
Russian Health Minister: the first batch of long-awaited novel coronavirus vaccine will be put into use within two weeks. In response to foreign voices questioning the safety of the first vaccine, it said the accusations were groundless and out of critics' fear of fair competition. Earlier, Fauci, a top infectious disease expert in the United States, said in an interview that he was seriously skeptical about the Russian novel coronavirus vaccine.
According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in September is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates in the 0% won 0.25% range in November is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 0%.
According to statistics on the epidemic situation of novel coronavirus at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of August 12, US Eastern time, there were more than 5.18 million confirmed cases, 5187611 cases and 165831 deaths by COVID-19 in the United States. In the past 24 hours, there have been 56827 new confirmed cases and 1228 new deaths in the United States.
Big banks in the US and Europe added 19000 workers and largely shelved layoffs in the first half of 2020 because of a surge in demand for loans and other services during the COVID-19 epidemic. As of June, eight of the top 15 banks had more employees than at the end of 2019, four decreased and the other three remained unchanged. Barclays increased the most, hiring more than 7000 people, while HSBC cut the most, cutting nearly 3000 jobs.
Terminal information
[camel Co., Ltd.: the first phase of the project of Zhongke Luorui Company has been completed] Camel said that the first phase of the project has been completed, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 sets of drive systems, and the development of many projects. passenger car motors to achieve small batch supply, but also actively expand the application of commercial vehicles.
[July excavator sales increased by more than 50% over the same period last year] data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association show that in July 2020, the 25 excavator manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold a total of 19100 excavators of various types, an increase of 54.8% over the same period last year. Of these, 16253 are domestic, up 59.5% from the same period last year; and exports are 2857, up 32.5% from the same period last year. From January to July this year, a total of 189500 excavators were sold, an increase of 26.7 percent over the same period last year, of which 172100 were domestic, an increase of 27.5 percent, and exports were 17400, an increase of 20 percent over the same period last year.
[semiconductors] IC Insights: announced that the top 10 semiconductor manufacturers in the first half of 2020, wafer foundry leader TSMC continued to stay in the top three, with annual revenue growth of up to 40%, and the highest growth rate was Huawei's Hayes, with an annual growth rate of 49%, making it one of the top 10. The top five on the list are Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Hynix and Micron Technology, while the sixth to 10th places are Broadcom, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Huida and Hayes.
[automobile] China Alliance for the Promotion of Electric vehicle charging Infrastructure: in the first seven months of this year, the domestic charging infrastructure increased by 122000 units, down 49.9% from the same period last year, and the overall charging infrastructure maintained a low growth level. As of July this year, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure in the country was 1.341 million.
[battery] Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times: in the first half of the year, the European new energy vehicle market grew by 52%, while China's new energy vehicle market fell by 44%. This year, the sales of electric cars in Europe as a whole will surpass those in China, and we are very miserable. Ningde era will be based on technological innovation, independent research and development of the whole industry chain. To this end, a 21C innovation laboratory will be set up with a total investment of 3.3 billion yuan and a development scale of more than 1000 people in five years.
Related market
[national Grid Hunan Electric Power Company and Hengyang Transformer Company signed a contract to open a new era of Hunan smart grid] on August 11, Hunan Electric Power Company of State Grid and Hengyang Transformer Co., Ltd., a special transformer electrician, formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and the two sides will open all-round strategic cooperation in the fields of emergency support of 10~500kV transformers and 500kV reactors, trade-in of old reactors and factory maintenance. Deng Qunze, secretary of the Hengyang Municipal CPC Committee, expressed the hope that in conjunction with the preparation of the 14th five-year Plan, we will further strengthen the cooperation between Hunan Electric Power Company of the State Grid and Hengyang in the construction of "two new and one heavy" construction, the transformation of old residential areas, the construction of a smart grid, and the reduction of electricity costs, so as to help build a strong modern industrial city in Hengyang.
[crude oil] according to the Algerian News Agency, Algeria's oil and gas export revenue fell 40% in the first half of the year compared with the
[Baltic dry bulk index rose to a three-week high] the Baltic dry bulk index rose 2%, or 30 points, to 1540 on Wednesday, the highest since July 21, thanks mainly to increased demand for all types of ships. The capesize index rose 0.7% to 2332, with an average daily profit of $19339, while the Panamanian index rose 4.6% to 1747, a new high since October 24 last year, with average daily profit up $682 to $15723.
[crude Oil] EIA report: U.S. crude oil stocks in the Gulf of Mexico fell at an all-time high in three weeks. Last week, the utilization of refineries on the east coast of the United States rose to its highest level since August 2019.
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