SMM Evening Comments (Aug 12): Shanghai nonferrous metals declined for the most part, zinc advanced 0.16%

SHANGHAI, Aug 12 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals broadly fell on Wednesday August 12 as negotiations of coronavirus relief package were in a stalemate and China’s social financing scale for July missed expectations.

Shanghai nonferrous metals, except for zinc, traded lower on Wednesday August 12. Copper dropped 1.73% to lead the losses, lead weakened 1.27%, tin shed 1.08%, nickel declined 1.03%, and aluminium fell 0.49%, while zinc advanced 0.06%.

The ferrous complex all closed lower. Iron ore fell 0.89%, hot-rolled coil weakened 0.13% and rebar shed 0.55%.

An SMM survey showed that 35 steelmakers in China plan to produce a total of 10.42 million mt of hot-rolled coils and plates in August, up 6.6% from the realised output in July.

Planned output of construction steel rebar across China’s major blast furnace steelmakers is estimated to fall 3.32% from the realised production in July to 8.88 million mt in August, showed an SMM survey.

Social inventories of long steel (including wire rods and rebar) in Guangzhou decreased 0.56%, or 7,400 mt, in the week ended August 12 to 1.31 million mt, showed SMM data. The stocks were 50.75% higher than the same period last year.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2009 copper contract closed 1.73% weaker at 49,870 yuan/mt today. Stalled talks between the Congress and the Trump administration on fiscal stimulus and China’s social financing scale for July falling short of expectations weighed on copper prices. SMM will eye US consumer price index (CPI) for July and inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) tonight, and whether the contract could remain above 50,000 yuan/mt will be monitored.

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE 2009 aluminium contract ended 0.49% weaker at 14,235 yuan/mt in choppy trading today. Open interest lost 3,867 lots to 118,000 lots. Nonferrous metals weakened as precious metals crashed, but spot aluminium prices limited the decline in its futures prices. SMM will keep a close watch on domestic aluminium ingot inventories tomorrow.

Zinc: The most-active SHFE 2009 contract closed up 0.16% on the day at 19,370 yuan/mt. Open interest fell 9,096 lots to 84,641 lots. The contract is expected to fluctuate around the five-day moving average tonight.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2010 nickel contract fell to an intraday low of 110,520 yuan/mt in morning trading as dollar firmed and bullion prices tumbled, but rallied this afternoon and finished the day 1.03% lower at 112,300 yuan/mt. The contract will likely move along the 10-day moving average of 112,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Lead: The most-active SHFE 2009 lead contract fell to an intraday low of 15,855 yuan/mt in afternoon trading as bullion prices declined by their daily trading limits and longs reduced positions, before rebounding to finish the day 1.27% lower at 15,990 yuan/mt. Whether the contract could remain above the 10-day moving average will be monitored tonight.

Tin: The most-liquid SHFE 2010 tin contract bounced from an intraday low of 141,520 yuan/mt to a session high of 144,250 yuan/mt, before erasing some gains to close 1.08% lower at 143,540 yuan/mt today. It is expected to move below the 20-day moving average of 145,000 yuan/mt tonight.