[SMM afternoon Review] Macro data boosted the limited non-ferrous market, most of which fell, black crude oil fell nearly 2% in the last period of strong shock.

SMM7 March 31: Friday morning, most of the non-ferrous market floating green, although the morning PMI data rose 0.2% over the previous month, 5 consecutive months above the critical point, but the disk impact is limited, near midday most metals weakened again. Shanghai copper recently fluctuated sideways, the analysis believes that first of all, after the release of capital sentiment, the market needs to regain momentum. Coupled with the domestic downstream into the off-season, copper stocks continue to rise, copper prices rise weakly. Short-term copper prices are still mainly adjusted, and medium-and long-term copper prices still have room to rise. Shanghai Aluminum has risen strongly recently, mainly because the US dollar continues to weaken due to the Fed's loose monetary policy, and abundant market liquidity makes funds continue to be enthusiastic about non-ferrous metals. Although the investment of new capacity has accelerated somewhat, it is actually realized that the increase in production will be relatively limited, so the supply pressure will not appear in the short term; and after the summer enters the traditional peak season of demand for aluminum, when the real estate back-end and power grid investment pull, demand will be more optimistic.

Black low open high, narrow range shock, rebar spot price has suppressed under the support. On the one hand, the supply side is steadily increasing. According to SMM research, as of July 28, the operating rate of electric arc furnaces in East China increased by 4% month-on-month compared with last week. At the same time, inventories are high, and social treasuries in major cities in eastern China are significantly higher than last year, which continues to suppress spot prices. On the other hand, demand is continuing to recover. According to the research data of SMM, about 38% of the terminal enterprises are expected to increase their steel purchases in August. Coupled with the strong price of raw materials caused by the willingness of steel mills to continue to strengthen, there is still support at the bottom of steel prices.

Crude oil fell 1.98% in the previous period. International oil prices have rebounded further from a three-week low hit the previous session after a record contraction in US economic data hit the market. Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $43.61 a barrel. The contract fell 1.9 per cent on Thursday, but has recovered most of its losses since its low on July 10. Us crude oil futures rose 31 cents, or 0.8%, to $40.23 a barrel. It fell 3.3 per cent in the previous session and has rebounded from its low since July 10.

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Today's spot

Lead: South China lead 15650 yuan / ton in Guangdong market, 50 yuan / ton in SMM1# lead price, 15700 yuan / ton in Minshan, Henan, 15700 yuan / ton in SMM1# lead price, 15650 yuan / ton in Shuikoushan, Hunan, 50 yuan / ton in SMM1# lead price (trader), 15570 yuan / ton in the south of Hechi, Guangxi, 30 yuan / ton discount to flat water; Yunnan small factory 15350 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 250yuan / ton quotation. The high price of lead falls, the willingness of the smelter to ship is still not high, and the market quotation remains flat to rising water.

Zinc: the mainstream trading volume of zinc in Guangdong is 18660-18830 yuan / ton. the quotation is concentrated on the discount of 40 yuan to 20 yuan per ton for the 2009 contract of zinc in Shanghai, and the discount of 70 yuan per ton in Guangdong is 40 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous trading day. In the first trading session, traders received more goods yesterday, and the supply of goods in circulation declined slightly in the early market today, but the price was high and fluctuating, the purchasing demand downstream was limited, and some holders slightly adjusted their quotations, and the prices were loosened. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, quotation for Shanghai zinc September contract discount 10-30 yuan / ton, Tiefeng, Feilong discount 30-40 yuan / ton, Danxia up 20 yuan / ton. In the second trading session, the monthly spread of futures widened, and some holders tried to push up the price, but the demand for low-price supply was better, and the downstream bargain slightly added weekend usage, and the demand was slightly better than the first trading session. Kirin, Mengzi and Huize quoted a discount of 20-30 yuan per ton for the September contract for Shanghai zinc and 10 yuan per ton for Danxia. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize mainstream transactions at 18660-18830 yuan / ton.

The mainstream trading of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 18980-19010 yuan / ton, Zijin was traded at 19010-19090 yuan / ton, Huludao was quoted at 20220 yuan / ton, zinc common to 2008 contract was quoted around 180 yuan / ton to 240yuan / ton, Zijin to August contract was quoted around 300,320 yuan / ton, compared with Shanghai market, the price of water rose from 140yuan / ton to 160yuan / ton in Tianjin. Today, the price of zinc in Shanghai has gone up and down, and the spot market has maintained the price of rising water, and the price is relatively uniform. The ordinary brand Bering News has quoted a rise of 200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, and Hongyi has quoted a rise of 240 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. Chi Hong quoted a rise of 180-200 yuan per ton for the 08 contract, while the high-priced brand Zijin quoted a rise of 300-320 yuan per ton for the August contract, while Baiyin quoted a rise of 160 yuan per ton for the 08 contract. The fourth Ring Road (delivered) quoted a rise of 100 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, Huize reported a rise of 200 yuan / ton for the 08 contract, and ha zinc (including out of the warehouse) quoted a rise of 120 yuan / ton for the 08 contract. The price of zinc has gone up and down today. During the first period of time, traders maintained the quotation of rising water today, in which ordinary brands maintained the quotation of rising water, while the volume of purple gold goods was less, they raised the quotation of rising water again, and Tianjin has received a small amount of water. In the downstream, the absolute price is still high, the superimposed rising discount remains high, and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises is the main procurement. On the whole, the deal was mediocre today. Zinc ingots traded around 18800-18860 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc in Shanghai was 18780,18880 yuan / ton, and that of Shuangyan was 18790,18890 yuan / ton; the price of zinc in Shanghai was 600.70 yuan / ton in August; the price of zinc in Shuangyan was 70,80yuan / ton in August; and that of zinc in Shuangyan was 18710-18810 yuan / ton. Shanghai Zinc 2008 contract fluctuated downward, the first trading session of the morning market closed at 18710 yuan / ton, the market fluctuated downwards, and the market shipping mood was good. Morning market transactions of ordinary zinc brands were concentrated in the vicinity of the average price of the SMM net to a discount of 5 yuan / ton, and the market quotation rose 80 yuan / ton to the 2008 contract in the morning, but the market trading was light and traders lowered the bid price to 70 yuan / ton. Entering the second period of time, the market further lowered the price of rising water, and the ordinary zinc brand of the holder lowered the price to 600.70 yuan / ton; the upward momentum of zinc in the future was insufficient, and the willingness to purchase warmed up after today's lower prices in the lower reaches, but it was more cautious to replenish the stock.

Tin: spot market, quoted price of 144000-147500 yuan / ton today. Shanghai tin plate than yesterday's center of gravity moved down 2000 yuan / ton, the average net price fell 1250 yuan / ton. The downstream still thinks that the absolute price is too high and the willingness to receive the goods is not high. Futures prices fell, hedges prices compared to manufacturers have an advantage, a small number of shipments. The overall trading atmosphere of the Shanghai tin spot market is general. In terms of rising discount, the set price of Shanghai tin 2010 contract is around 500yuan / ton, Yunzi discount is 500yuan / ton to flat water, and small-brand discount is 2000 yuan / ton.

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