Nickel price judgment: there is less fundamental correlation among the leading factors of the recent market; The fundamentals of nickel are weak but mostly known news, such as the increase in the supply of nickel pig iron and the pressure on stainless steel market shipments in the off-season, etc., as a whole, the short-term contradiction is not obvious; in the macro aspect, some overseas data are bright, on the major link, we can see that overseas is still following the logic of consumer recovery, coupled with the policy support of enterprises in various countries have a certain effect, the relative preference of the macro side; under the comprehensive effect, the performance range of nickel price fluctuates. The overnight Shanghai Nickel 10 contract closed at the Zhongyin column last night, and Shanghai Nickel fell below the 5 / 10 moving average, testing the position of 105000 yuan / ton pass below the shadow line. Today, we will pay attention to the support situation of this pass.
1. July 9th SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quotation 106100mur107100 yuan / ton. The futures nickel 08 contract recorded a deep V trend in the morning market, with only a small number of spot transactions at the low level, and then nickel prices rose back so that some of them were single slippery. The afternoon high volatility of nickel prices inhibited spot trading, and most traders reflected that the trading situation was not good today. In terms of discount, Russo Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2008 contract offer 550-stick 450 yuan / ton, daily trading volume is limited. Jinchuan Nickel 2008 contract against Shanghai Nickel rose about 400 won 600 yuan / ton. After the rising water fell, it also failed to attract terminals to pick up the goods, and there was a small amount of circulation among traders. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan was 107000 yuan / ton, unchanged for the fourth trading day in a row this week. The price of nickel beans has not been further lowered, and the discount is still about 1500 yuan / ton.
2. On July 9th, the ex-factory price of SMM high nickel pig iron is 960 won 965 yuan per nickel point (including factory tax), which is the same as the average price of the previous trading day. At present, the market price of high-nickel pig iron is in a state of difference between rising and falling, and the prices of nickel and stainless steel are higher than those in the previous period. driven by the rising market, the price mentality of high-nickel pig iron holders tends to go higher. However, the profit of the downstream stainless steel plant is limited, and the retractable space is relatively small, but at present, the spot negotiable supply of high nickel pig iron market flows from the nickel iron factory to the middleman, and the probability of the middleman shipping at low price is low, therefore, if the nickel price and stainless steel price can maintain a stable high position in the short term, the price of high nickel pig iron can rise slightly, but the rising space is suppressed by the gradual increase of Indonesian production.
3. On July 9, the spot price of stainless steel in Wuxi was generally flat, with 304 cold rolling reported 13450 Mel 13650 yuan / ton and 304 hot rolling reported 12900 Mel 13000 yuan / ton. Traders reflect that the mainstream specifications of the market are still not much at present, and the price is firm. However, the performance of the transaction is general, and the price may fluctuate slightly after the arrival of the steel plant in the later stage.
![[Analyse SMM] Les prix de la fonte de nickel de haute qualité baissent alors que l'offre se redresse et que l'activité du marché ralentit](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LNpBh20251217171732.jpeg)
