Tuesday, July 7, 2020
News breakfast
"rising factors
1. A new batch of special debt lines exceeding one trillion yuan has been issued.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance has issued a new batch of new local special debt lines to the provincial financial departments. In addition, the 200 billion quota to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks has not yet been issued, and each province needs to fight for it separately with specific programs. In late May, the National people's Congress approved a new local government special debt limit of 3.75 trillion in 2020. After deducting the quota of 2.29 trillion issued in advance and the quota of 200 billion to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks, the quota issued this time is 1.26 trillion.
2. Real estate trusts issued more than 100 billion yuan in June.
According to the latest data from Utility Trust, in the first half of the year, 68 trust companies in the industry issued a total of 15899 collective trust products, totaling 1.54 trillion yuan, up 35.8% from 11705 models of 1.35 trillion yuan in the same period last year, and 14.1% in terms of financing. It should be pointed out that in the case of a slight decline in the issuance scale of collective trust products in May, the size of real estate trusts rebounded significantly from the previous month, reaching 59.756 billion yuan, an increase of 23.79%. In June, real estate enterprises continued to heat up financing through trust channels, with usufruct data showing that a total of 104.33 billion yuan of real estate trust products were issued in June, an increase of 31.3% over the previous month.
Downside factor
1. As the torrential rain continues, the Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission continues to issue a yellow flood warning.
Heavy to torrential rain is expected in western Jianghuai, southern Jianghan, northern Jiangnan, eastern Chongqing, northern Guizhou and southern Sichuan, including torrential rain in Anhui and Hunan, and torrential rain in Hubei, the Central Meteorological Observatory said on the 6th. Meanwhile, on the 6th, some control stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River broke through the warning water level one after another, and the Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission continued to issue a yellow flood warning.
2. APEC raises the expected losses caused by the epidemic to GDP in 2020.
The APEC Policy support Bureau today adjusted its expectations of the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region. In April, the department estimated that the regional economy would contract by 2.7% in 2020. Today, the department expects the proportion of contraction to widen to 3.7%.
3. S & P expects global GDP to shrink by 3.8% in 2020.
S & P cut its forecast for global GDP to 3.8 per cent in 2020, up from 2.4 per cent. The change mainly reflects a deeper and longer blow to emerging markets, led by India, with a "reasonably strong rebound" in the global economy between 2021 and 2023, with an average global growth rate of more than 4 per cent, but the pandemic is expected to lead to permanent loss of output.
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