(under review) [SMM Analysis] can the upward momentum of bullish positions in Shanghai and Nickel continue for four consecutive days?

SMM5 March 21: in early trading today, Shanghai Nickel opened high, rising to 105810 yuan / ton, the highest in nearly three months, but then fell back. As of 10:10, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel 2007 was 1004650 yuan / ton, an increase of 2%.

At around 22:35 last night, bulls sharply increased their positions by more than 10,000 hands, and Shanghai Nickel pulled up. After breaking 104000 yuan / ton, the rise slowed, bulls continued to increase positions, short positions decreased at the end of the day, Shanghai Nickel concussion rose to 104800 yuan / ton position, and finally closed at 104790 yuan / ton.

The recent rise in nickel prices, SMM believes that the direct reason is due to the decline in crude oil inventories to boost speculative sentiment, bulls greatly increase positions. In terms of fundamentals, the consumption of pure nickel is weaker than that of nickel pig iron in the early stage. With the resumption of production in Europe and the United States, the downstream recovery of nickel other than stainless steel, there is a lot of room for marginal improvement.

At present, the expectation of the recovery of overseas downstream terminal consumption has not yet entered an obvious implementation stage, and the domestic downstream recovery has not peaked for a long time, and it is a major theme for the global economy to gradually emerge from the impact of the epidemic in the future. however, it will take a long time to fully recover to the level before the epidemic, and nickel prices are expected to continue a strong shock pattern in the second half of the year, but the upper space will not be very high without strong incentives from other fundamentals.

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