[April 2 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] Lun lead high pressure day Shanghai lead resonance downward

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that US Market manufacturing PMI48.5,ISM manufacturing PMI49.1, activity shrank less than expected in March, but the interference caused by the new crown epidemic pushed the sub-index of new manufacturing orders to an 11-year low, strengthening economists' view that the economy has fallen into recession.

China's central bank announced that in order to meet the temporary liquidity needs of financial institutions, the standing lending facility (SLF) operation to financial institutions in March totaled 30.63 billion yuan, down from 36 billion yuan last month, all of which were one-month varieties. The balance of standing lending facilities at the end of the period was 30.63 billion yuan.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the new local government bonds in the first quarter completed 83.5% of the quota issued in advance. Next, the Ministry of Finance will speed up the decision-making and deployment of the issuance and use of local government special bonds, and make every effort to ensure the smooth and smooth issuance of local bonds.

In order to help auto companies hit hard by the new crown epidemic to resume sales, China is considering temporarily relaxing quotas set to promote the production of electric vehicles. Chinese policy makers may also postpone the implementation of the "National six" emission standards for six months to help the auto industry. Chinese car sales fell sharply by 79% in February and are expected to fall by about 10% in the first half of this year. [Lido]

Fundamentals:

The rising momentum of lead in Shanghai period is limited, and the holder quotes with him and maintains the high quotation. Among them, Jinsha lead in Shanghai market quotes 130-160 yuan / ton for lead 2004 contract in Shanghai period, and 150-160 yuan / ton quotation for lead 2004 contract in southern Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, Tongguan and Shuikoushan. In the aspect of recycled lead, the purchase of low-price waste battery is still not smooth, part of the recycled lead enterprises raise the purchase price, the market of recycled lead becomes weak, and most of the recycled refined lead is quoted without tax. On the other hand, the downstream willingness to receive goods is not high, the bargaining price is more, and the transaction activity in the bulk market decreases.

Lead price:

Technically, Lun lead rebounded to the middle line of the previous decline high point, the upper pressure is greater, coupled with the macro mood is still pessimistic, Lun lead fell again, pay attention to the lower 10-day moving average support; according to the previous issue, there will be no night trading since February 3;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to fall 150-200 yuan per tonne today.