SMM11 4 April news, this year's "gold nine silver 10" market reaction seems to be not as good as in previous years, October black ore and steel compared with September have varying degrees of decline. Internationally, Sino-US trade relations have gradually warmed up, but the positive benefits have not yet been shown, and the performance of domestic economic data has not been satisfactory. At the same time, the news of resumption of production comes from time to time from the end of foreign mines, which has a great impact on the ore. Recently, the domestic atmospheric control and production restriction policy continues to disturb the downstream steel prices, which also forms pressure on the digestion of iron ore. With the drop in temperature, the construction industry ushered in the off-season, which is also a big challenge for the black department.
After the National Day, the price weakness of iron ore continued, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased greatly during the National Day period. As an expectation of future prices, iron ore futures have fallen sharply after the holiday and have been at a low level since the end of the holiday.
10.8 11.4 daily chart of iron ore
In terms of iron ore stocks, it was learned from customs data that imports of iron ore in September were 99.355 million tons, an increase of 4.507 million tons from the previous month, an increase for the third month in a row, the highest monthly import volume since 2017. In addition, in terms of overseas mine shipments, Vale's sales plan for this year is 3.07-332 million tons, a decrease of about 35 million-60 million tons compared with previous years. Vale shipments in the first three quarters were lower than the average in previous years due to the mining disaster. Shipments are expected to surge in the fourth quarter. According to SMM statistics, domestic port inventories rose in October compared with September.
Source: SMM
On the steel side, the steel market has generally weakened due to imports of raw materials, weaker overall demand and lower-than-expected economic growth, with thread 2001 contracts falling more than 5 per cent from a pre-National Day high of 3580 to 3256. At the end of last month, local atmospheric environmental control programs were released one after another, which formed a certain support for steel prices, and there was a certain degree of concussion rebound at the end of the month, as high as 3390 points.
Looking back at the market, steel may be subject to some macro positive factors, steel supply pressure has not further increased; on the other hand, the overall thread is still low. If there is no new negative factor in the short term, the thread is expected to rebound.
Thread daily chart
Overall, the main force of the black system in November may be driven by steel, iron ore trend will follow the pace of the steel market. Steel demand will enter the traditional seasonal off-season, demand will gradually weaken, steel prices under pressure. Internationally, the Federal Reserve announced late last month that it would cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% to 1.75%, the third time the Fed has cut interest rates so far this year. Central banks such as Indonesia and Russia have also announced interest rate cuts. Under the influence of easing policy, global economic liquidity is expected to boost, macroeconomic situation is expected to improve. Under the suppression of all kinds of empty and multi-information, what will be the next step of the black system?
SMM believes that demand in the north is still there, coupled with a variety of environmental policies intertwined, prices also have support, as the weather gets colder and colder, demand weakens, prices are also slightly weaker. The demand performance of the south this month will be stronger, but to the middle and late north material south increment gradually reached the market, the suppression of spot prices is also growing.
Grand meeting of thousands of people in China's colored metal industry
Shanghai Colored net (SMM) Annual meeting is an annual event of the metal industry, which is attended by thousands of people every year. People from the metal industry at home and abroad gather to review and sum up the experience and harvest of the year, and lay the groundwork for the production, operation and operation of the coming year.
This year's "2019 China Nonferrous Metals Industry Annual meeting and 2020 (SMM) Metal Price Forecast Conference" was jointly created by SMM and China Renewable Resources Industry technological Innovation Strategic Alliance and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. At the same time, the first "China recycled Metal Industry chain Development Summit Forum" was held at the same time. At the same time, you will enjoy the establishment of the SMM Metal Price forecasting Conference and the waste Battery Recycling Exchange. From the development of the non-ferrous metal market to the recovery and utilization of renewable resources, from the detailed explanation of the policy system to the technical research and development of the industrial chain.
This is not only a meeting, but also a brainstorm for the industry to exchange information and collide with the spark of thinking!
"Click to sign up for SMM Annual meeting
Scan QR code and apply to join SMM metal exchange group, please indicate company + name + main business
