SMM October 29th Zinc Morning meeting:
Zinc Morning meeting: macroscopically: it is reported that the US President has said that the United States is making faster progress in signing some Sino-US economic and trade agreements than planned, and the optimism has boosted US stocks to a record high, with safe haven assets such as US Treasuries and the yen falling. The import and export of US goods both fell to their lowest level in more than a year in September, the latest sign that President Trump's tariff is hitting the US economy. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in September as imports fell more sharply. The British prime minister accepted the EU decision to postpone Brexit until January 31, eliminating the risk of a no-deal Brexit on Thursday, and the pound strengthened. China faces 250 billion yuan in reverse repo funds due today, with 10-year bond yields hitting a five-month high, with concerns about whether the central bank will inject more capital to rescue the downturn, and markets are looking forward to its renewed use of targeted medium-term lending facilities for (TMLF).
Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: the disk quickly pulled up the spot transaction to fade
Shanghai: in the first trading session, the morning holder quoted 90 yuan / ton on the 1911 contract, while the mainstream quotation on SMM was flat, but the transaction was very few, the spot rising water was reduced to 80 yuan / ton to 1911 liter water; in the second trading period, the zinc price continued to be strong, holding further lowered the rising water quotation, the 1911 contract rose 60-70 yuan / ton; Enter this week, due to the lack of monthly problems coupled with the end of long single delivery, spot rising water quickly down, and today with the rapid rise in zinc prices, downstream mining and buying mood is low, mostly wait-and-see, today's market trading is poor.
Guangdong: refinery shipments are normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 20-30 yuan / ton on the 12 contract, some of the holders took the lead in lowering the discount to 40 yuan / ton, the market transaction focused on the low price discount, and the quotation of 20 yuan / ton in the 12 contract basically disappeared. Into the second trading session, the market continued to pull up, the market price down again, trading concentrated in the 12 contract discount around 40-50 yuan / ton. On the whole, the market transaction atmosphere has weakened slightly, the downstream is mainly inquiry and wait-and-see, traders contribute to the main trading.
Tianjin: refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the circulation of goods tends to be loose. The quotation of the source of high-priced brand is concentrated in the vicinity of 100-120 yuan / ton for 11 contract, and the quotation for the source of ordinary brand is about 6090 yuan / ton for 11-liter water. Although the northern region of environmental protection production restrictions affect some of the downstream purchasing demand, but today the center of gravity of the disk is obvious, the shippers are more willing to ship, the rising water is also loose, superimposed on the northern haze dissipated high speed to return to normal, downstream bargain mining and buying contribution must be traded. On the whole, today's deal is better than yesterday's.
Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded four Lianyang, the lower averages neatly upward, KDJ index slightly upward trend, indicating that the temporary storage of zinc action energy, in addition, the decline in LME zinc stocks caused supply shortage panic and good progress in Sino-US trade negotiations also supported zinc prices. Zinc in Geneva is expected to fluctuate upward. The LME zinc 0-3 liter discount was $46.50 a tonne yesterday. Overnight, Shanghai zinc recorded two Lianyang, running on each EMA and attached to the shadow line thorn Brin Road on track suppression, MACD red column elongated, showing Shanghai zinc or storage upward space, in addition, overseas inventory has declined one after another, domestic social inventory also recorded a decline, indicating that spot supply at home and abroad may have tightened, superimposed macro environment warming, Shanghai zinc or with the outer plate showed a strong concussion trend.
Today is expected: Lun zinc or range is expected to run at 2510-2560 US dollars / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract or run at 18800-19300 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc increased by 90 yuan / ton
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![Consommation modérée liée au stockage avant les fêtes ; le zinc au SHFE s'est consolidé sur une note modérée [Analyse des contrats à terme sur le zinc SMM]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/PEqzX20251217171755.jpg)
