[summary of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting] Sichuan Aluminum Plant will speed up the pace of new production capacity and pay attention to the month-on-month change of consumption in November

10.28 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting

Disk: on Friday, the US index recorded two Lianyang, a high of 97.906, a recent one-week high, copper, zinc and aluminum floating red on the outer plate, Lun aluminum closed at US $1734 / ton, up 17 US dollars / ton, or 0.99%. On Friday, the inner plate metal turned red, and the Shanghai Aluminum Company 1912 contract closed at 13850 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / ton, or 0.25%. Macroscopically: 1) the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 27 show that in the first three quarters of 2019, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale decreased by 2.1% compared with the same period last year. Of these, the decline was 3.3% in the first quarter, 1.9% in the second quarter and 1.8% in the third quarter. (2) the fourth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee was held today (3) to pay attention to the process of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at the end of October and market expectations. Fundamentals: 1) Sichuan Guangyuan Linfeng Power Phase I 250000 ton electrolytic aluminum project is expected to be electrified at the beginning of November 2019 and roasted around the 20th. The preferential electricity price given to enterprises by the local government is 0.26 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and promises that the subsequent electricity price will not be higher than 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour. 2) in September 2019, the export volume of aluminum profiles and bars was 86300 tons, down 4.98% from August and 1.09% from the same period last year; from January to September, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles and bars was 786000 tons, up 12% from January to August, and 12.5% from January to September last year. From January to September, the main exporting countries are Vietnam, the Philippines and Australia. 3) according to the latest customs data, China imported a total of 6.7495 million tons of bauxite in September 2019, down 21.86 percent from the previous month and 2.08 percent from the same period last year. From January to September, China imported a total of 78.1325 million tons of bauxite, an increase of 26.79 percent over the same period last year. The month-on-month decline was mainly due to a decrease in imports of Guinean aluminum ore, which affected the mining process during the July rainy season and workers' strikes affected mining efficiency.

Spot: on Friday morning, the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai was 13990-14000 yuan / ton, after 10: 30, the spot price was 1397013980 yuan / ton, and the rising water on the plate remained around 100-110 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous day, the price was basically the same, and the spot price in Hangzhou was 1399014000 yuan / ton. In the morning, a large customer took the lead in receiving the goods, the quotation was relatively high, the holder approved and actively shipped the goods, the aluminum price fell back in the second trading stage, the shipper's shipping enthusiasm did not decrease, but the quotation was relatively strong, the rising water remained stable, and the middleman actively received the goods, but the two sides still showed a stalemate in the transaction. Downstream last Friday still on-demand procurement, fear of heights is obvious, and did not show weekend stock sentiment. Summary: the short-term market long-short contradiction still exists, although the supply increase is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow, and the social electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to go to the warehouse, it is not appropriate to be too short, we should pay attention to the month-on-month changes in consumption in November. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the increase in internal and external risk can appropriately reduce the position. The pattern of the inner plate is close to strong and far from weak, and pay attention to the change of monthly price difference in the later period.

(SMM Xueman)