SMM7 19: as of press time, non-ferrous rose in early trading, Shanghai nickel rose 4.08%, Shanghai tin rose 0.11%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.28%, Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58%, Shanghai copper rose 1.77%, Shanghai lead rose 1.16%. Black Zhang fell mutually, iron ore rose slightly, thread fell 1.22%, hot roll fell 0.85%, coking coal fell 0.81%, coke fell 1.5%.
The zinc weakened overnight in March, the domestic closing price was US $2496, then weakened, as low as US $2454, and finally closed at US $2457, down 0.61%. The main force of Shanghai zinc weakened at night, opening at 19595 yuan in the evening, followed by price shock, night diving, as low as 19355 yuan, evening shock, and final close of 19395 yuan. Last night, zinc prices fluctuated. At present, inventories at home and abroad are low, while maintaining a downward trend to support zinc prices in the short term. At present, the supply of the smelter is gradually released, the supply pressure is greater, the later period enters the consumption peak season in September, the market supply and demand is prosperous, the price fluctuation probability is big.
Shanghai nickel closed at 117310 yuan, up 0.39 per cent. LME3 nickel closed up 3.97 per cent at $14945 the day before. Electrolytic nickel spot trading in general, fundamentals, Indonesia and the Philippines nickel mine inventory is adequate, Indonesia Delong new capacity postponed to the fourth quarter. Stainless steel inventories are at an all-time high, inventories fell last week and consumption shows signs of improving. Shanghai nickel rose sharply, large steel mills play a role, fundamentals can not support.
The (IEA) of the International Energy Agency on Thursday cut its forecast for 2019 global crude oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day, compared with a previous forecast of 1.2 million barrels per day. If global economic growth slows, IEA said, it could further lower its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2019. IEA said that in the event of supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA would take "prompt and decisive" measures to balance the oil market.
Today's forecast:
Copper: at present, affected by the Fed's comments at the macro level, the market has again raised its interest rate expectations, which is good for copper prices in the short term, and the good performance of European economic data has strengthened the confidence of the European economy to recover. At the same time, the situation of Britain's hard Brexit has been alleviated, and the pound has rebounded, weakening the market's preference for safe-haven dollars. Macroscopically, it is good for copper prices, but from the current performance point of view, the upward integer gate power is slightly insufficient, the need for heavy macro news to promote. At present, Shanghai copper close Yang, below there are multiple recent EMA support, KDJ high maintenance stability, but need to be alert to the formation of a high dead fork pattern. Spot recently due to the strong willingness of the holder to hold the price, the rising water continues to remain high, but from yesterday afternoon, due to the sufficient supply of goods, the holder's willingness to hold the price has been loosened, take the initiative to adjust the price in order to cash in, today the market rose slightly, the quotation is expected to be reduced. Today, copper prices are expected to be US $5960 to US $6010 per ton, Shanghai Copper 46600 to 47100 yuan per ton, and spot flat water to 70 yuan per ton.
Aluminum: it is expected that the 1909 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company will run between 13800 yuan and 13950 yuan / ton today, and the spot discount will be concentrated between 30 yuan and 10 yuan per ton. Overnight expectations of a Fed rate cut strengthened, with the US index falling more than 500 points, metals closing higher and aluminium prices getting a boost, expected to run between $1800 and $1860 a tonne today.
Lead: Lun lead into eight Lianyang single side of the market, there is a short-term possibility to continue to strengthen, but the current position is a strong pressure level in the early stage, whether the effective breakthrough, temporary wait-and-see. Overnight Shanghai lead continued to change hands, but it is not difficult to find that the extent of the uplink is limited, indicating that to this height bulls hesitant, and short cautious opening positions, if the future market can not continue to break through, the strength of short positions will be increased, Shanghai lead has the possibility of short-term rapid return of increases.
Zinc: overnight, zinc received a small negative line, attached to the shadow line on the 40-day moving average, the lower support in the 20-day EMA operation, overseas back structure has not yet attracted more positions, the market is still expected for the follow-up warehouse, Lun zinc return space may be relatively limited, within a day or run at 2440 to 2490 US dollars / ton. Overnight, Shanghai zinc stopped yang and negative, the pressure of the 40-day moving average above Shanghai was strong, the overall pressure of Shanghai zinc was under pressure, and the expected increase of domestic inventory was enhanced, the kinetic energy of zinc return in Shanghai was perhaps limited, and it could be rearranged within a day, with a range of 19150 to 19650 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic double swallow zinc pair increased by 50% to 90% in August.
Nickel: nickel closed again, a strong rally, a record of 12 consecutive days, today focused on the top platform before the high of $16000 / ton first-line resistance; overnight Shanghai nickel closed at the small positive line, re-explore a new high, the highest since July 2018, today focused on the Shanghai nickel 119000 yuan / ton barrier breakthrough; spot is expected to 115000 to 119500 yuan / ton.
Tin: support below Lunxi is expected to be around the previous low of $17500 per tonne. Shanghai tin last night long and empty forces intertwined, short slightly better, closed with a small positive line, the lower part of the entity is supported by the 5-day EMA, the upper pressure on the 10-day EMA, is expected to support 132000 yuan / ton below the Shanghai tin, and the upper resistance is around 137500 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin main 1909 contract rose slightly last night, is expected to today's mainstream trading price of 135000 to 136500 yuan / ton.
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